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La Liga

Osasuna - Sevilla

04/26/2026, 04:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Osasuna
1.6
Total xG
2.3
Sevilla
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

2:0

13%

1:1

13%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
OSASEV

Osasuna

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 18, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Full strength squad available

Sevilla

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.53
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 10, 8 places gap)
-0.06
Akor Adams on the bench (8 goals, 4 assists)
Juanlu SĂĄnchez on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Nemanja Gudelj on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sevilla with Gabriel Suazo: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Osasuna: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Osasuna: 67% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 9)

  • 4
    Osasuna with Jorge Herrando: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 2.8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Osasuna: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Mallorca: 2 goals (89', 90+4')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

27%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a probability of 58%
  • Sevilla concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away game, indicating a vulnerable defense
  • Osasuna averaged 5.6 shots on target in their last 5 games and shows strong offensive play
Risk Factors
  • Sevilla had only 3 days of rest since their last match and may be fatigued
  • Osasuna's recent goal production is stalled at 1.0 goals, while their season average is 1.6
  • Sevilla averaged only 1.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Osasuna (10th place, 39 points) host Sevilla (18th place, 34 points) at the Estadio El Sadar

La Liga match on April 26, 2026, 6:30 PM

Osasuna aims to consolidate their league position, while Sevilla desperately needs points in the relegation battle

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 58%

Form

Osasuna's form across all competitions is LWDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

In their last 5 games, Osasuna recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

The last match ended in a 0-1 loss against Athletic Club

Sevilla shows poor form with LLLWL in their last 5 games across all competitions

This equates to 1 win and 4 losses

Sevilla lost their last away game 0-2 against Levante

Statistics

Osasuna scored an average of 1.16 goals per game this season and conceded 1.22 goals

At home, Osasuna is defensively strong with 1.18 goals scored and only 0.77 goals conceded per game

Sevilla scored an average of 1.22 goals this season and conceded 1.66 goals

Sevilla's away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per away game

Both teams scored in 16 of Osasuna's games and in 19 of Sevilla's games

The Estadio El Sadar has seen an average of 2.8 goals per match in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, the record between Osasuna and Sevilla is even

Both teams secured 1 win, while 3 matches ended in a draw

The goal difference stands at 3:3

Sevilla won the last encounter 1-0 away on November 8, 2025

Key Players

For Osasuna, Ante Budimir is an important attacker with 16 season goals, though his form is slightly declining

Víctor Muñoz showed rising form with 1 goal in the last 5 games and a season rating of 6.77

Rubén García contributed 2 goals and 5 assists this season, his form is slightly declining

For Sevilla, Rubén Vargas is a key player with 3 goals and 5 assists, his form is stable

Isaac Romero shows rising form with a last 5 Avg Rating of 6.98

Djibril Sow has scored 5 goals and provided 1 assist this season, but his form is declining

Not nominated for Sevilla are Akor Adams (8 goals, 4 assists), Juanlu SĂĄnchez (0 goals, 3 assists), and Nemanja Gudelj (2 goals, 0 assists)

Goalkeepers

Osasuna's goalkeeper Sergio Herrera played in 32 season games and achieved 7 clean sheets

Sevilla relies on Odysseas Vlachodimos, who kept 5 clean sheets in 28 games

Influences

The Estadio El Sadar is known for goals, with an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Osasuna benefits from a home advantage with a strong home defense, conceding only 0.77 goals per game

Sevilla's poor away defense, conceding 2.00 goals per game, could be decisive

The grass pitch is the usual surface for both teams

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