La Liga
Rayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad
04/26/2026, 12:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.9
1.1
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
9%3:1
6%1:2
6%What influences the xG?
Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
The Lab
- 1Rayo Vallecano with Florian Lejeune: 0.4 goals/90 min. Without: 4.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 2Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 3Real Sociedad with Brais MĂ©ndez: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Rayo Vallecano: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 6 games with xG data)
- 5Rayo Vallecano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
25%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Rayo Vallecano with a 54% probability
- Defensive strength vs. Away weakness: Rayo Vallecano's strong home defense (Avg. 0.58 goals conceded) meets Real Sociedad's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 2.18 goals conceded)
- Home form advantage: Rayo Vallecano showed better form in recent home matches with 3 wins from their last 3 home games
Risk Factors
- Limited goal threat for Rayo Vallecano: Only 68% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without Jorge de Frutos (10G/1A) and Ălvaro GarcĂa (4G/5A)
- Short recovery for Rayo Vallecano: The team has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Weak away defense: Real Sociedad concedes an average of 2.18 goals per away game
Overview
Rayo Vallecano (12th place, 38 points) host Real Sociedad (8th place, 42 points) at the Estadio de Vallecas. The La Liga match is on April 26, 2026, 2:00 PM. Rayo Vallecano is fighting for stability in the mid-table, while Real Sociedad is striving for European qualification spots.
Form
Rayo Vallecano's form in their last five games is WWLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 3 wins and 2 losses. Real Sociedad, on the other hand, shows a form of LWDDL, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches.
Statistics
Rayo Vallecano averages 0.95 goals per home game and concedes only 0.58 goals. They kept 7 home clean sheets. Real Sociedad averages 1.55 goals away but concedes a high 2.18 goals per away game, achieving only 1 away clean sheet. At Estadio de Vallecas, an average of 1.6 goals are scored per game, and only 1 out of 5 matches saw both teams score, also only 1 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 1 win for Real Sociedad, and 2 draws. The goal difference is balanced at 6:6. The last encounter on October 5, 2025, ended in a 1-0 away victory for Rayo Vallecano at Real Sociedad.
Key Players
For Rayo Vallecano, Florian Lejeune (average rating 7.08, 1 assist), Isi PalazĂłn (3 goals, 3 assists), and Andrei RaÈiu (3 assists, rising form) are key players. For Real Sociedad, Mikel Oyarzabal (12 goals, 3 assists), Carlos Soler (4 goals, 3 assists), and Takefusa Kubo (2 goals, 4 assists) are the standout performers.
Goalkeepers
Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper Dani CĂĄrdenas has an average rating of 7.01 in 2 season appearances and contributed to the team's 10 clean sheets. Ălex Remiro of Real Sociedad has an average rating of 6.78 in 32 season appearances and was involved in 3 clean sheets.
Influences
Rayo Vallecano shows a clear home advantage, conceding a low 0.58 goals per home game. The Estadio de Vallecas is known for tending towards low-scoring matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game, only 1 in 5 matches with both teams scoring, and only 1 in 5 matches ending with over 2.5 goals.