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La Liga

Valencia - Girona

04/25/2026, 04:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Valencia
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Girona
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
VALGIR

Valencia

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.09
Filip Ugrinic on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Eray Cömert not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Girona

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Vladyslav Vanat not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 92% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Valencia with Unai NĂșñez: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Girona: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Girona with Alejandro Francés: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Valencia: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Valencia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

30%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Valencia with 44% probability and 1.45 expected goals
  • Girona's form curve shows a positive development (1.4 current goals vs. 1.2 season average), while Valencia's goal production stagnates (1.0 current goals vs. 1.3 season average)
  • Girona has had the upper hand in the last 5 head-to-head encounters (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
Risk Factors
  • Girona averaged only 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Valencia's current goal production (1.0) is lower than their season average (1.3)
  • Both teams show defensive vulnerabilities, with Valencia conceding an average of 1.47 goals and Girona 1.50 goals per game
Overview

Valencia (14th place, 36 points) host Girona (13th place, 38 points) at the Estadio de Mestalla

La Liga match on April 25, 2026, 6:30 PM

Both teams are in the mid-table, with Girona only two points ahead of Valencia

Form

Valencia's form across all competitions: LWLLD

This corresponds to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last five matches

The last matchday ended in a draw for Valencia

Girona's form across all competitions: WLWDL

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last five matches

The last matchday ended in a loss for Girona

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Valencia scored an average of 1.09 goals per game this season and conceded 1.47 goals

At home, Valencia's average goals scored is 1.11 and goals conceded is 0.95

Girona scored an average of 1.09 goals per game this season and conceded 1.50 goals

In away matches, Girona's average goals scored is 1.07 and goals conceded is 1.60

At Valencia's stadium, an average of 3.2 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 3 wins for Girona, 1 win for Valencia, and 1 draw

Girona scored a total of 8 goals, Valencia 6 goals

The last encounter on October 4, 2025, ended in a 2-1 victory for Girona

Girona has been the more dominant team in recent encounters

Key Players

For Valencia, Guido RodrĂ­guez (Avg. 7.02 rating, 2 goals, 0 assists), Pepelu (Avg. 6.96 rating, 2 goals, 0 assists) and Luis Rioja (Avg. 6.84 rating, 2 goals, 5 assists) are key players

Guido RodrĂ­guez shows a rising form with a last 5-game rating of 7.22

For Girona, Azzedine Ounahi (Avg. 7.25 rating, 5 goals, 2 assists), Viktor Tsygankov (Avg. 7.15 rating, 6 goals, 4 assists) and Arnau MartĂ­nez (Avg. 6.88 rating, 1 goal, 2 assists) are crucial

Claudio Echeverri (Avg. 6.81 rating, 1 goal, 1 assist) for Girona is in rising form with a last 5-game rating of 7.16

Not nominated for Valencia: Filip Ugrinic (0G/3A), Eray Cömert (2G/0A)

Not nominated for Girona: Vladyslav Vanat (9G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Valencia's goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski has achieved 8 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 6.9

His form is stable with a last 5-game rating of 7.01

Girona's goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga has 6 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 6.87

His form is rising with a last 5-game rating of 7.60

Influences

Valencia's home game at Estadio de Mestalla shows an average of 3.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches at this stadium

The surface is grass

Valencia scored an average of 1.11 goals at home and conceded 0.95 goals

Girona conceded an average of 1.60 goals away

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