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La Liga

Real Oviedo - Elche

04/26/2026, 02:15 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Real Oviedo
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Elche
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ROELC

Real Oviedo

Attack weakness (0.57x league average)
-0.54
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (1.6 vs 0.9 season average)
+0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Thiago FernĂĄndez on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)

Elche

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Rafa Mir on the bench (8 goals, 0 assists)
GermĂĄn Valera on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
Martim Neto on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists)
Tete Morente on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Elche: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Elche: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Real Oviedo with Eric Bailly: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Elche with Pedro Bigas: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Elche: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

33%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Elche's glaring defensive weakness away from home, conceding an average of 2.82 goals per game
  • Real Oviedo's positive recent form trend, currently scoring more (1.6 goals) than their season average (0.9 goals)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 37% probability, compared to 30% for an away win
Risk Factors
  • Real Oviedo had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Elche recorded an average of 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Real Oviedo scores only an average of 0.8 goals per home game
Overview

Real Oviedo (20th place, 28 points) host Elche (16th place, 35 points) at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

La Liga match on April 26, 2026, 4:15 PM

Real Oviedo are fighting relegation, while Elche aim to stay clear of the drop zone

The mathematical analysis gives Real Oviedo a slight advantage with a 37% win probability, a draw is rated at 33%

Form

Real Oviedo's (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) form across all competitions is WLWWD

The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches

The last game ended in a draw

Elche's form is LWLWW with 3 wins and 2 losses

Elche won their last two matches consecutively

Statistics

Real Oviedo averages 0.78 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.53 goals

At home, Real Oviedo scores 0.8 goals per game and concedes 1.5 goals

Elche averages 1.31 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.53 goals

Away from home, Elche scores 1.27 goals per game but concedes a high 2.82 goals per away game

Real Oviedo kept 9 clean sheets, Elche 7 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 22 of Elche's games, and in 11 of Real Oviedo's games

At Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, the last five matches averaged 1.6 total goals per game

The mathematical analysis calculates a 66% probability for over 1.5 goals and 37% for over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has only been one head-to-head match between these two teams

Elche won this match away on September 21, 2025, with a score of 1-0

Elche has 1 win in the historical record compared to 0 wins for Real Oviedo

The goal difference is 1-0 in favor of Elche

Key Players

For Real Oviedo, Federico Viñas recorded 9 goals and 1 assist in 28 season appearances, with 3 goals in his last 5 games

Ilyas Chaira contributed 5 goals and 2 assists in 30 appearances, with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Alberto Reina scored 4 goals and 2 assists in 31 season appearances, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games

For Elche, André Silva scored 9 goals and 0 assists in 25 appearances, with 2 goals in his last 5 games

HĂ©ctor Fort registered 1 goal and 2 assists in 9 appearances, with 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games

David Affengruber scored 1 goal and 1 assist in 30 appearances, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Not nominated for Elche: Rafa Mir (8G/0A), GermĂĄn Valera (4G/4A), Martim Neto (2G/5A), Tete Morente (1G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Real Oviedo's goalkeeper AarĂłn Escandell played in 32 matches and kept 9 clean sheets

Elche's goalkeeper MatĂ­as Dituro played in 16 matches and kept 7 clean sheets

Influences

Real Oviedo concedes 1.5 goals per home game

Elche concedes an average of 2.82 goals per away game

The Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere recorded an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last five matches

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 20%

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