La Liga
Deportivo Alavés - Mallorca
04/25/2026, 12:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.7
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Deportivo Alavés
Mallorca
The Lab
- 1Mallorca: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 2Deportivo Alavés with Jon Guridi: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Mallorca: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Mallorca: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Deportivo Alavés: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
55%
Draw
26%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
45%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Deportivo Alavés with a probability of 55% and an expected 1.75 goals
- Deportivo Alavés shows positive form according to Advanced Stats, currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average (1.4 goals)
- Mallorca exhibits significant defensive weakness away from home, conceding an average of 2.9 goals per away game this season
Risk Factors
- Mallorca will be without Manu Morlanes (2 goals, 0 assists) and Zito Luvumbo (0 goals, 2 assists), who are not in the starting lineup
- Deportivo Alavés' defense has been more vulnerable recently, conceding an average of 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.5 goals
Overview
Deportivo Alavés (18th place, 33 points) hosts Mallorca (16th place, 35 points) at the Estadio de Mendizorroza. La Liga match on April 25, 2026, 2:00 PM. Both teams are in a relegation battle and desperately need points to move out of the drop zone.
Form
Deportivo Alavés' form in their last five games is DWDDL
This corresponds to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
Their last match was a loss
Mallorca, on the other hand, shows a form of WLWWD
This means 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games
Their last match ended in a draw
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Deportivo Alavés has scored an average of 1.13 goals and conceded 1.5 goals per game this season
At home, they scored 1.12 goals and conceded 1.06 goals per home game
Mallorca scored an average of 1.25 goals and conceded 1.53 goals per match
Their away defense is notably weak, with an average of 2.9 goals conceded per away game
The Estadio de Mendizorroza has seen an average of 3.4 total goals in the last 5 games
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Alavés and Mallorca have an even record
Both teams secured one win each, while three matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is also even at 3:3
The last encounter on September 27, 2025, resulted in a 1:0 away win for Mallorca
Key Players
For Deportivo Alavés, Toni Martínez (9 goals, 3 assists), Lucas Boyé (11 goals, 1 assist), and Carles Aleñá (0 goals, 4 assists) are important players
For Mallorca, Vedat Muriqi (21 goals, 1 assist), Samú Costa (6 goals, 1 assist), and Pablo Torre (3 goals, 3 assists) stand out
Toni Martínez and Abde Rebbach show a rising form trend
Vedat Muriqi has stable form
Goalkeepers
Antonio Sivera is in goal for Deportivo Alavés and has recorded 3 clean sheets this season
Leo Román is Mallorca's goalkeeper, with 4 clean sheets to his name so far
Influences
Deportivo Alavés scores an average of 1.12 goals and concedes 1.06 goals at home
Mallorca's away defense is weak, conceding 2.9 goals per game
Venue statistics at Estadio de Mendizorroza show an average of 3.4 goals per game
Both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches