La Liga
Real Betis - Real Madrid
04/24/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.0
1.4
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Real Betis
Real Madrid
The Lab
- 1Real Madrid: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 2Real Madrid: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Real Madrid with Thiago Pitarch: 4.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Real Betis with Rodrigo Riquelme: 7.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.1 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
- 5Real Madrid: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
27%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Real Betis with a 41% probability and 1.63 expected goals, despite Real Madrid's higher league position
- Real Madrid's current form shows a negative trend, and goal production has decreased from 2.2 season goals to 1.6 in recent matches
- Real Betis is in stable form, maintaining a consistent scoring rate of 1.8 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Real Betis has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Real Madrid has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Real Madrid dominated the last head-to-head matches, winning the most recent encounter 5-1
Overview
Real Betis (5th place, 49 points) host Real Madrid (2nd place, 73 points) at the Estadio OlĂmpico de Sevilla. The La Liga match is on April 24, 2026, 9:00 PM. Real Betis is fighting for an international spot, while Real Madrid aims to close the gap to the league leader.
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Real Betis shows a form of DDDLW, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games. Their last result was a win. The form trend is stable according to the analysis.
Real Madrid has a form of LLDLW, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches. Their last result was a win. Their current form shows a negative trend.
Statistics
Real Betis averaged 1.50 goals scored per game and conceded 1.25 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.53 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded. Real Betis consistently scores, with both season and recent averages around ~1.8 goals per game.
Real Madrid averages 2.09 goals scored per game and 0.94 goals conceded. Away from home, Real Madrid scores 2.15 goals and concedes 1.23 goals per game. Real Madrid's goal production is currently stalled at 1.6 goals, while their season average is 2.2.
The Estadio OlĂmpico de Sevilla records an average of 3.2 goals per game. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 games finished with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches over the last two years, Real Betis secured 1 win, while Real Madrid claimed 2 wins. 2 games ended in a draw. Real Betis scored 4 goals and conceded 9. The last encounter on January 4, 2026, ended in a 5-1 victory for Real Madrid. Real Madrid has been more dominant in recent head-to-head clashes.
Key Players
For Real Betis, Abde Ezzalzouli with 7 goals and 7 assists, and Pablo Fornals and Antony each with 7 goals, are important players.
For Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé stands out with 24 goals and 4 assists, Vinicius Junior with 12 goals and 5 assists, and Federico Valverde with 5 goals and 8 assists.
Goalkeepers
Real Betis' starting goalkeeper is Ălvaro Valles, who kept 9 clean sheets this season. For Real Madrid, Andriy Lunin is in goal, with 11 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Real Betis demonstrates a home advantage with an average of 1.53 goals scored and only 0.94 goals conceded in home games. The stadium itself is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game, a high BTTS rate of 80%, and an Over 2.5 rate of 60%.