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La Liga

Girona - Real Betis

04/21/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Girona
1.1
Total xG
2.4
Real Betis
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
GIRRB

Girona

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.08
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Vladyslav Vanat not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists)
Hugo RincĂłn on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

Real Betis

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.23
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.19
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.16
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Antony not in squad (7 goals, 5 assists)
HĂ©ctor BellerĂ­n on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Girona with Alejandro Francés: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Girona: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Real Betis with HĂ©ctor BellerĂ­n: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Girona: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Real Betis: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

31%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Real Betis with a probability of 42% and an expected 1.36 goals
  • Real Betis is significantly ahead of Girona in the league (5th place vs. 12th place) and shows better season statistics in offense and defense
  • Home team Girona recorded an average of only 3 shots on target in their last five games, indicating a lack of offensive penetration
Risk Factors
  • Real Betis is in a negative run of form with 2 losses and 3 draws from their last five games
  • Three of the last five head-to-head matches ended in a draw, indicating a tendency for shared points
Overview

Girona (12th place, 38 points) host Real Betis (5th place, 46 points) at the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. The La Liga match takes place on April 21, 2026, 7:30 PM. Girona aim to move away from the bottom half of the table, while Real Betis are fighting for a European competition spot

Form

Girona's form across all competitions is DWLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

The last match result was a draw

Real Betis' form across all competitions is LDDDL

They have not secured a win in their last five matches, with 3 draws and 2 losses

The last match result was a loss

Statistics

Girona averages 1.06 goals scored per game and concedes 1.45 goals

At home, Girona averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded

Real Betis averages 1.45 goals scored per game and concedes 1.23 goals

Away, Real Betis averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.69 goals conceded

At the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, an average of 2.4 total goals were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Girona and Real Betis each secured 1 win, with 3 draws

Real Betis scored a total of 8 goals, while Girona scored 7 goals

The last encounter on November 23, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

For Girona, Viktor Tsygankov (5 goals, 4 assists) is in rising form with an average rating of 6.99 in the last 5 games and 2 assists

Azzedine Ounahi (4 goals, 2 assists) shows a declining form

Claudio Echeverri (1 goal, 1 assist) is in rising form and recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

For Real Betis, Abde Ezzalzouli (6 goals, 5 assists) is an important attacker but is in declining form

Cucho HernĂĄndez (8 goals, 3 assists) has stable form and scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

Pablo Fornals (7 goals, 4 assists) shows stable form but had no goal contributions in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Girona's goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga (28 appearances) kept 6 clean sheets and is in rising form

Real Betis' goalkeeper Álvaro Valles (22 appearances) recorded 9 clean sheets but is in declining form

Influences

Girona averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded at the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi

The stadium saw an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 60% of the last 5 matches at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%

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