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La Liga

Real Madrid - Deportivo Alavés

04/21/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Real Madrid
2.1
Total xG
3.2
Deportivo Alavés
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

7%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
RMDA

Real Madrid

Attack strength (1.4x league average)
+0.50
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 17, 15 places gap)
+0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Brahim Díaz on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)

Deportivo Alavés

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.29
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.29
Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 2, 15 places gap)
-0.20
Carles Aleñá on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Pablo Ibáñez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Madrid: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Real Madrid: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Deportivo Alavés with Jon Guridi: 5.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Real Madrid with Daniel Carvajal : 4.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Deportivo Alavés: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

23%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a home win at 58%
  • Real Madrid shows strong offensive tactics with an average of 7.8 shots on target, while Deportivo Alavés averages 3.6 shots on target
  • The historical record clearly favors Real Madrid, who won all 5 direct encounters
Risk Factors
  • Deportivo Alavés concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Real Madrid's goal production has recently decreased to 1.8 goals per game, while the season average is 2.2
  • Deportivo Alavés is currently scoring more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.4)
Overview

Real Madrid (2nd place, 70 points) host Deportivo Alavés (17th place, 33 points) at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

La Liga match on April 21, 2026, 9:30 PM

Real Madrid aims to keep pace with the league leaders

Form

Real Madrid's form in the last 5 matches is WLLDL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

The home team's recent streak is one loss

Deportivo Alavés shows a form of LDWDD in their last 5 matches (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)

The away team has secured two consecutive draws recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Real Madrid scores an average of 2.1 goals per game this season and concedes 0.94 goals per game

The team managed to keep 11 clean sheets

At the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Real Madrid scores an average of 2.06 goals and concedes 0.72 goals

Deportivo Alavés scores an average of 1.13 goals per game and concedes 1.48 goals

The away team achieved 3 clean sheets

In away matches, Alavés scores 1.14 goals per game and concedes an average of 2.0 goals

Matches at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu average 3.6 total goals

In 80% of matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid dominated with 5 wins and 0 draws

Deportivo Alavés has not managed a single victory so far

The goal difference of 12 to 3 clearly favors Real Madrid

The last direct encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for Real Madrid

Real Madrid proved to be the dominant team in recent encounters

Key Players

For Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé is a key player with 23 season goals and 4 assists

Vinicius Junior contributed 11 season goals and 5 assists

Arda Güler showed 4 goals and 8 assists this season

Kylian Mbappé recorded 2 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games

Vinicius Junior provided 0 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Arda Güler scored 2 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games

For Deportivo Alavés, Lucas Boyé is crucial with 11 season goals and 1 assist

Toni Martínez contributed 8 season goals and 3 assists

Ángel Pérez scored 1 season goal and 1 assist

Lucas Boyé scored 3 goals in his last 4 games

Toni Martínez scored 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Ángel Pérez scored 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Andriy Lunin is the goalkeeper for Real Madrid

Antonio Sivera is in goal for Deportivo Alavés

Real Madrid achieved 11 clean sheets this season

Deportivo Alavés recorded 3 clean sheets

Influences

Real Madrid shows a strong home record at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu with an average of 2.06 goals scored and 0.72 goals conceded

Deportivo Alavés is more vulnerable away from home, scoring 1.14 goals and conceding 2.0 goals on average

The Santiago Bernabéu stadium encourages high-scoring games with an average of 3.6 goals per match

In 80% of matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals

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