đŸ‡Ș🇾

La Liga

FC Barcelona - Celta de Vigo

04/22/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
FC Barcelona
1.9
Total xG
2.9
Celta de Vigo
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FBCDV

FC Barcelona

Attack strength (1.64x league average)
+0.42
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (1.8 vs 2.6 season average)
-0.24
FermĂ­n LĂłpez on the bench (5 goals, 8 assists)
Ronald Araujo on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)

Celta de Vigo

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.04
Borja Iglesias on the bench (11 goals, 2 assists)
Óscar Mingueza on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Hugo Sotelo on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Celta de Vigo with Hugo Sotelo: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Celta de Vigo: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    FC Barcelona with Xavi Espart : 10.8 goals/90 min. Without: 2.6 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Celta de Vigo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

25%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of 58% for an FC Barcelona home win
  • FC Barcelona's strong home offense (avg. 2.68 goals per home game) meets Celta de Vigo's recently vulnerable defense (avg. 3.0 goals conceded in the last 5 games)
  • Current form clearly favors Barcelona with 4 wins from their last 5 games compared to Celta de Vigo's 4 losses
Risk Factors
  • FC Barcelona shows a negative offensive form trend according to Advanced Stats, with current goal production of 1.8 goals compared to a season average of 2.6 goals
  • Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper Ionuț Radu shows a strongly declining form trend with a delta of -0.66 in the last 5 games
Overview

FC Barcelona (1st place, 79 points) host Celta de Vigo (6th place, 44 points) at Camp Nou. La Liga match on April 22, 2026, 9:30 PM. The Catalans are aiming for the title, while Celta de Vigo is fighting for a European spot

Form

FC Barcelona's form across all competitions shows 4 wins and 1 loss (WWLWW). The last result was a win. FC Barcelona has achieved two consecutive wins. Celta de Vigo has a form of 1 win and 4 losses (LWLLL). The last result was a loss. Celta de Vigo has suffered three consecutive losses. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Barcelona averages 2.71 goals scored and 0.97 goals conceded per season. At home, they average 2.68 goals scored and only 0.47 goals conceded per game. They kept 12 clean sheets in 12 games, 8 of which were at home. Celta de Vigo averages 1.42 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per season. Away from home, they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded per game. Celta de Vigo kept 8 clean sheets in 8 season games, 5 of which were away. At Camp Nou, the average is 4.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches. In 3 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 4 wins for FC Barcelona, no wins for Celta de Vigo, and 1 draw. FC Barcelona scored 15 goals and Celta de Vigo scored 10 goals. The last encounter was won by FC Barcelona on November 9, 2025, with a score of 4:2. FC Barcelona has been dominant in recent head-to-head matches

Key Players

For FC Barcelona, Lamine Yamal with 15 goals and 11 assists, Ferran Torres with 14 goals and 1 assist, and Dani Olmo with 7 goals and 7 assists are the top scorers. Lamine Yamal shows a declining form trend, while Ferran Torres shows a rising form. For Celta de Vigo, Ferran Jutglà (7 goals, 2 assists), Javi Rueda (2 goals, 4 assists), and Hugo Álvarez (3 goals, 1 assist) stand out. Ferran Jutglà and Hugo Álvarez show a stable form trend

Goalkeepers

Joan GarcĂ­a is FC Barcelona's goalkeeper and recorded 12 clean sheets this season, 8 of which were in home games. His form is declining in the last 5 games. Ionuț Radu is Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper. He kept 8 clean sheets in 8 season games, 5 of which were in away games. His form shows a strongly declining trend in the last 5 games

Influences

FC Barcelona's home advantage is statistically proven by their strong home offense with an average of 2.68 goals and home defense with only 0.47 goals conceded per game. Camp Nou has seen an average of 4.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches. In 3 of the last 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored, and in 3 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.