La Liga
Athletic Club - Osasuna
04/21/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.4
0.8
1:0
13%1:1
13%2:0
12%0:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Athletic Club
Osasuna
The Lab
- 1Athletic Club with Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Osasuna: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 3Gorka Guruzeta: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)
- 4Osasuna: 67% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 9)
- 5Osasuna with Jorge Herrando: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 2.8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
55%
Draw
28%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
45%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Athletic Club with 55% probability and expects 1.60 home goals
- Athletic Club's goal production recently dropped significantly to 0.6 goals, well below the season average of 1.2 goals
- Osasuna shows a stronger offensive style with an average of 6.0 shots on target in the last 5 games, compared to Athletic Club's 4.8 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Osasuna concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
- Osasuna is missing A. Catena MarugĂĄn (yellow card suspension), A. Osambela Larraya (red card suspension), and I. Benito SĂĄnchez (cruciate ligament injury)
- Athletic Club recently showed a declining goal production of 0.6 goals compared to their season average of 1.2 goals
Overview
Athletic Club (11th place, 38 points) host Osasuna (9th place, 39 points) at San Mamés Barria
La Liga match on April 21, 2026, 7:00 PM
Both teams are closely matched in the mid-table, with Osasuna slightly ahead of Athletic Club
A victory could secure a connection to the upper half of the table for both teams
Form
Athletic Club shows a poor current form with LLWLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)
The team lost its last two games consecutively
Osasuna is more stable with DLWDD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss) and drew their last two games consecutively
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Athletic Club scores an average of 1.05 goals per home game and concedes 1.0 goal
They kept 3 clean sheets in home matches
Osasuna scores an average of 1.22 goals away but concedes an average of 2.33 goals
They kept 2 clean sheets in away matches
At San Mamés Barria, an average of 2.2 goals were scored in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 60% of the games, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, the record was balanced with 1 win for Athletic Club, 1 win for Osasuna, and 3 draws
The goal difference is 7:7 goals
The last encounter on January 3, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw
Key Players
Gorka Guruzeta is Athletic Club's top scorer with 7 goals and 1 assist
Nico Williams contributed 4 goals and 2 assists, Iñaki Williams scored 2 goals and provided 4 assists
For Osasuna, Ante Budimir is the most prolific scorer with 16 goals
RubĂ©n GarcĂa contributed 2 goals and 5 assists, while VĂctor Muñoz provided 5 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Unai SimĂłn in goal for Athletic Club recorded 5 clean sheets in 31 season appearances
Sergio Herrera of Osasuna kept 7 clean sheets in also 31 season appearances
Influences
Athletic Club shows an average home offense of 1.05 goals and a stable defense with 1.0 goal conceded per game
Osasuna has a high vulnerability away from home, conceding 2.33 goals per game
The natural grass at San Mamés Barria is the usual playing surface