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La Liga

Real Oviedo - Villarreal

04/23/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Real Oviedo
0.7
Total xG
2.0
Villarreal
1.2
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

0:1

15%

1:1

14%

0:2

11%

1:0

9%
What influences the xG?
ROVIL

Real Oviedo

Attack weakness (0.56x league average)
-0.98
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (1.6 vs 0.9 season average)
+0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 3, 17 places gap)
-0.13

Villarreal

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.24
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 20, 17 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Georges Mikautadze on the bench (9 goals, 5 assists)
Alberto Moleiro on the bench (9 goals, 4 assists)
Gerard Moreno on the bench (8 goals, 0 assists)
Santi Comesaña not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists)
Alfonso Pedraza on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 57% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Villarreal with Alfon GonzĂĄlez: 6.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Villarreal: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 3
    Real Oviedo with Eric Bailly: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Villarreal: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Villarreal: 67% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

33%

Away Win

46%

Goals

Over 1.5

60%

Under 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

54%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Villarreal is the clear favorite with an away win probability of 46% according to mathematical analysis
  • Villarreal boasts a significantly stronger offense with 1.81 season goals per game compared to Real Oviedo's 0.77 goals
  • Villarreal's counter-attacking strength (5.4 shots on target with 42% possession) meets Real Oviedo's balanced play style
Risk Factors
  • Villarreal are missing Georges Mikautadze (9T/5A), Alberto Moleiro (9T/4A), Gerard Moreno (8T/0A), Santi Comesaña (3T/5A), Alfonso Pedraza (1T/2A), leaving only 58% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available
  • Real Oviedo scores only an average of 0.78 goals per home game
  • Villarreal concedes an average of 1.92 goals per away game
Overview

Real Oviedo (20th place, 27 points) host Villarreal (3rd place, 61 points) at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

La Liga match on April 23, 2026, 9:30 PM

The hosts are fighting to avoid relegation, while the visitors are competing for a Champions League spot in the table

Form

Real Oviedo shows a form of W-D-L-W-W in their last five games (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

The team managed to win their last two matches

Villarreal has a form of W-D-W-L-W in their last five games (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

The last match was won

Statistics

Real Oviedo scores an average of 0.77 goals per game and concedes 1.55 goals per game this season

At home, the average is 0.78 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded

The team recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Villarreal scores an average of 1.81 goals per game and concedes 1.16 goals per game this season

Away, the average is 1.83 goals scored and 1.92 goals conceded

The team recorded 8 clean sheets this season

At Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, an average of 1.4 goals per game were scored

Only 1 of 5 matches saw both teams score, and only 1 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between Real Oviedo and Villarreal so far

Villarreal won the only game

The goal difference is 0:2 in favor of Villarreal

The last encounter on August 15, 2025, ended with a 0:2 victory for Villarreal

Key Players

For Real Oviedo, Federico Viñas is a key factor with 9 goals and 1 assist this season and 4 goals in the last 5 games

Alberto Reina contributed 4 goals and 1 assist this season, scoring 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 matches

Ilyas Chaira recorded 4 goals and 2 assists this season

For Villarreal, Nicolas Pépé is noteworthy with 5 goals and 4 assists in the season and 2 goals in the last 5 games

Tajon Buchanan scored 6 goals and 1 assist this season

Pape Gueye has 4 goals and 2 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Real Oviedo's goalkeeper, AarĂłn Escandell, made 31 appearances this season

Real Oviedo achieved 9 clean sheets this season

Villarreal's goalkeeper, Arnau Tenas, played in 3 season matches

Villarreal achieved 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere is a venue with a historically low goal-scoring rate

An average of 1.4 goals per game are scored there

Real Oviedo scored an average of 0.78 goals at home and conceded 1.56 goals

Villarreal scored an average of 1.83 goals away and conceded 1.92 goals

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