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La Liga

Rayo Vallecano - Espanyol

04/23/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Rayo Vallecano
2.2
Total xG
3.1
Espanyol
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
RVESP

Rayo Vallecano

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.14
Álvaro García not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists)
Unai LĂłpez on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

Espanyol

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.49
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Cyril Ngonge on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
RamĂłn Terrats on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Espanyol with Pere Milla: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Rayo Vallecano with Pep ChavarrĂ­a: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 5 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Espanyol: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Rayo Vallecano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

22%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

35%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Rayo's favorite role: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 65% and 2.17 expected goals
  • Espanyol's poor form: The visitors are winless in their last 5 games (DLLDL)
  • Espanyol's H2H advantage: Despite current form, Espanyol has won all 3 direct encounters
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for duels in Rayo Vallecano's last 5 matches
  • Limited data availability for duels in Espanyol's last 5 matches
Overview

Rayo Vallecano (16th place, 35 points) host Espanyol (11th place, 38 points) at Estadio de Vallecas. The La Liga match takes place on April 23, 2026, 8:00 PM. Rayo aims to extend its distance from the relegation zone, while Espanyol seeks to consolidate its mid-table position

Form

Rayo Vallecano's form is LWWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). They recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games, with the last match ending in a defeat. Rayo Vallecano's goal production is faltering recently (1.0 goals on average), while their season average is 1.5 goals. Espanyol's form is DLLDL. The team is winless in their last 5 matches, with 2 draws and 3 losses. Their last encounter resulted in a loss. Espanyol's goal production is also faltering (1.0 goals on average), compared to a season average of 1.3 goals

Statistics

Rayo Vallecano averages 0.94 goals per home game and concedes 0.61 goals. Over the entire season, Rayo scored 29 goals and conceded 38. Espanyol averages 1.19 goals away from home and concedes 1.69 goals. Overall, Espanyol scored 37 goals and conceded 48. Rayo's home matches saw an average of 2.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in only 1 out of 5 matches. More than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the 3 recent head-to-head matches, Espanyol dominated with 3 wins compared to 0 for Rayo Vallecano. The goal difference is 1:7 in favor of Espanyol. The last meeting on December 7, 2025, ended 0:1 in favor of Espanyol

Key Players

For Rayo Vallecano, Jorge de Frutos is important with 10 goals, 1 assist, and an average rating of 6.92. Isi PalazĂłn has 3 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 6.89. Andrei Rațiu, a defender, contributed 3 assists and has a season rating of 6.94. For Espanyol, Edu ExpĂłsito is a key player with 1 goal and 6 assists, with an average rating of 7.14. Roberto FernĂĄndez scored 6 goals and 2 assists, and Kike GarcĂ­a also has 6 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper Dani CĂĄrdenas made one appearance this season and Rayo Vallecano achieved 9 clean sheets this season. Espanyol recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

Estadio de Vallecas is a significant factor. Rayo Vallecano scored an average of 0.94 home goals and conceded only 0.61 home goals. The stadium recently saw an average of 2.0 goals per game. Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches.

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