La Liga
Rayo Vallecano - Espanyol
04/23/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.2
3.1
0.9
2:0
11%1:1
10%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
The Lab
- 1Espanyol with Pere Milla: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Rayo Vallecano with Pep ChavarrĂa: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 5 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 4Espanyol: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Rayo Vallecano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
65%
Draw
22%
Away Win
13%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
87%
Away or Draw
35%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Rayo's favorite role: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 65% and 2.17 expected goals
- Espanyol's poor form: The visitors are winless in their last 5 games (DLLDL)
- Espanyol's H2H advantage: Despite current form, Espanyol has won all 3 direct encounters
Risk Factors
- Limited data availability for duels in Rayo Vallecano's last 5 matches
- Limited data availability for duels in Espanyol's last 5 matches
Overview
Rayo Vallecano (16th place, 35 points) host Espanyol (11th place, 38 points) at Estadio de Vallecas. The La Liga match takes place on April 23, 2026, 8:00 PM. Rayo aims to extend its distance from the relegation zone, while Espanyol seeks to consolidate its mid-table position
Form
Rayo Vallecano's form is LWWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). They recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games, with the last match ending in a defeat. Rayo Vallecano's goal production is faltering recently (1.0 goals on average), while their season average is 1.5 goals. Espanyol's form is DLLDL. The team is winless in their last 5 matches, with 2 draws and 3 losses. Their last encounter resulted in a loss. Espanyol's goal production is also faltering (1.0 goals on average), compared to a season average of 1.3 goals
Statistics
Rayo Vallecano averages 0.94 goals per home game and concedes 0.61 goals. Over the entire season, Rayo scored 29 goals and conceded 38. Espanyol averages 1.19 goals away from home and concedes 1.69 goals. Overall, Espanyol scored 37 goals and conceded 48. Rayo's home matches saw an average of 2.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in only 1 out of 5 matches. More than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the 3 recent head-to-head matches, Espanyol dominated with 3 wins compared to 0 for Rayo Vallecano. The goal difference is 1:7 in favor of Espanyol. The last meeting on December 7, 2025, ended 0:1 in favor of Espanyol
Key Players
For Rayo Vallecano, Jorge de Frutos is important with 10 goals, 1 assist, and an average rating of 6.92. Isi PalazĂłn has 3 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 6.89. Andrei RaÈiu, a defender, contributed 3 assists and has a season rating of 6.94. For Espanyol, Edu ExpĂłsito is a key player with 1 goal and 6 assists, with an average rating of 7.14. Roberto FernĂĄndez scored 6 goals and 2 assists, and Kike GarcĂa also has 6 goals and 1 assist
Goalkeepers
Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper Dani CĂĄrdenas made one appearance this season and Rayo Vallecano achieved 9 clean sheets this season. Espanyol recorded 8 clean sheets this season
Influences
Estadio de Vallecas is a significant factor. Rayo Vallecano scored an average of 0.94 home goals and conceded only 0.61 home goals. The stadium recently saw an average of 2.0 goals per game. Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches.