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La Liga

Real Sociedad - Getafe

04/22/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Real Sociedad
1.9
Total xG
2.8
Getafe
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
RSGET

Real Sociedad

Attack strength (1.23x league average)
+0.55
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.16
Mikel Oyarzabal on the bench (12 goals, 3 assists)
Gonçalo Guedes not in squad (8 goals, 4 assists)
Ander Barrenetxea on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Luka Sucic on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Beñat Turrientes on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Sergio GĂłmez not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

Getafe

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.07
Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average)
+0.07
Domingos Duarte not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Getafe with SebastiĂĄn Boselli: 6.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Real Sociedad with Brais MĂ©ndez: 4.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Getafe: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Getafe: 56% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 9)

  • 5
    Real Sociedad: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

24%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Favoritism: Mathematical analysis predicts a 60% win probability for Real Sociedad
  • Offensive Home Strength: Real Sociedad averages 1.6 goals at home, while Getafe only scores 0.87 goals away
  • Historical Record: Real Sociedad is described as dominant in recent head-to-head encounters
Risk Factors
  • Limited Goal Threat: Real Sociedad has only 64% of their usual starting XI goal threat available (Mikel Oyarzabal, Gonçalo Guedes, Ander Barrenetxea, Luka Sucic, Beñat Turrientes, Sergio GĂłmez are missing)
  • Vulnerable Defense: Real Sociedad's recent goals conceded average has increased to 1.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.41
  • Counter-attacking Getafe: Getafe has been counter-oriented in their last 5 games with 33% possession and an average of 4.0 shots on target
Overview

Real Sociedad (7th place, 42 points) host Getafe (8th place, 41 points) at the Anoeta Stadium. La Liga match on April 22, 2026, 8:00 PM. This is a direct encounter in the fight for higher league positions. The mathematical analysis indicates a 60% probability of a home win for Real Sociedad.

Form

Real Sociedad's form across all competitions is W-L-W-D-D (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Their last match was a 2-2 draw against Atlético Madrid. Getafe's form is W-L-W-W-L (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). Their last game ended in a 0-1 loss to Levante. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Real Sociedad scores an average of 1.58 goals per game and concedes 1.55 goals. At home, the average is 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded. Getafe scores an average of 0.87 goals and concedes 1.03 goals. Away from home, they score 0.87 goals and concede 1.4 goals. Real Sociedad kept 3 clean sheets, while Getafe achieved 9. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 19 of Real Sociedad's matches and 9 of Getafe's matches. The Anoeta Stadium averages 3.8 total goals per game, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters over the last two years, Real Sociedad secured 2 wins, Getafe 1 win, and 2 matches ended in a draw. The goal difference is 7:8 in favor of Getafe. The last meeting on January 9, 2026, saw Real Sociedad win 2-1 away. Real Sociedad is described as recently dominant in these fixtures.

Key Players

For Real Sociedad, key players include Orri Óskarsson, who scored 5 goals in 14 season appearances and contributed 3 goals in his last 4 games (form stable). Brais MĂ©ndez has 6 goals and 2 assists in 27 season appearances, with 1 goal in his last 4 games (form stable). Takefusa Kubo has 2 goals and 4 assists in 19 season appearances, with 1 assist in his last 3 games, showing a declining form trend. For Getafe, Luis Milla is an important player with 9 assists in 30 season appearances (form declining). Mauro Arambarri scored 6 goals and 2 assists in 30 season appearances, with one goal and one assist in his last 5 games (form stable). MartĂ­n Satriano has 4 goals and 1 assist in 12 season appearances, with 1 goal in his last 5 games (form declining).

Goalkeepers

Real Sociedad's goalkeeper, Álex Remiro, kept 3 clean sheets this season. David Soria, Getafe's goalkeeper, has achieved 9 clean sheets this season. David Soria's form is rated as rising.

Influences

The Anoeta Stadium presents a home advantage for Real Sociedad, with an average of 3.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches, where both teams scored and over 2.5 goals occurred in 60% of cases. Real Sociedad averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded at home. Getafe concedes an average of 1.4 goals away. The matches are played on grass.

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