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La Liga

Elche - Atlético de Madrid

04/22/2026, 05:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Elche
1.4
Total xG
2.9
Atlético de Madrid
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ELCADM

Elche

Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 4, 14 places gap)
-0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.13
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.05
Álvaro Rodríguez on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Marc Aguado not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Atlético de Madrid

Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average)
-0.18
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 18, 14 places gap)
+0.10
Julián Alvarez not in squad (8 goals, 4 assists)
Giuliano Simeone on the bench (4 goals, 6 assists)
Antoine Griezmann on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Koke  not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Marcos Llorente not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
Matteo Ruggeri not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Nahuel Molina on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Ademola Lookman not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 32% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Elche: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Elche with Adrià Pedrosa: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Elche: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Elche: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Atlético Madrid with Nico González: 3.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

28%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Critically weakened Atlético squad: Only 33% of the usual starting XI strength is available, with key players like Julián Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann missing
  • Elche's strong home defense: The team concedes only an average of 0.8 goals per game at home
  • Balanced pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis sees a very close match with 35% home win and 37% away win probability
Risk Factors
  • Away team fatigue: Atlético Madrid had only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Low shots on target efficiency: Both teams recorded an average of less than 3.5 shots on target in their last 5 games (Elche 3.4, Atlético Madrid 3.2)
  • Declining goal production for both teams: Elche's goal production is stagnant (1.0), season average is 1.4; Atlético Madrid's goal production is stagnant (1.4), season average is 2.0
Overview

Elche (18th place, 32 points) host Atlético Madrid (4th place, 57 points) at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero. The La Liga match is on April 22, 2026, 6:00 PM. Elche are fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while Atlético are competing for Champions League spots

Form

Elche's form across all competitions is LLWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last result was a win

Atlético Madrid's form across all competitions is LWLLD

They registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last result was a draw

Statistics

Elche scores an average of 1.26 goals per game this season and concedes 1.52 goals

At home, Elche scores an average of 1.25 goals per game and concedes only 0.8 goals

They kept 7 clean sheets in home games

Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.6 goals per game away and concedes 1.8 goals

They recorded 5 clean sheets in away games

The Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero venue averages 2.4 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 2 head-to-head matches, Elche has 0 wins, Atlético Madrid has 1 win, and there has been 1 draw

Elche scored a total of 1 goal, Atlético Madrid scored 5 goals

The last encounter on August 23, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw

Atlético Madrid has dominated recent matchups

Key Players

For Elche, Rafa Mir is a key attacker with 8 season goals, 0 assists, and 1 goal in the last 5 games

Germán Valera contributed 4 season goals and 4 assists, with 1 assist in the last 5 games

André Silva scored 7 season goals and 1 goal in the last 5 games

For Atlético Madrid, Thiago Almada is an important player with 3 season goals, 1 assist, and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Nico González scored 3 season goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Álex Baena has 2 season goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Elche's goalkeeper Matías Dituro played 15 season matches and shows a stable form trend

Elche's team recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Atlético Madrid's goalkeeper Jan Oblak played in 26 season matches and shows a sharply declining form trend

Atlético Madrid's team achieved 12 clean sheets this season

Influences

Elche shows a solid defense at home, conceding an average of 0.8 goals per game

Elche's home record at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero includes a streak of 3 matches with over 1.5 goals

The grass pitch at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero provides standard playing conditions

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