Match report →
Elche – Atlético de Madrid3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Elche
1.44
Total xG
2.93
Atlético de Madrid
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Elche | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 4, 14 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average) | −0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 18, 14 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| Álvaro Rodríguez on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Marc Aguado not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Julián Alvarez not in squad (8 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Giuliano Simeone on the bench (4 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Antoine Griezmann on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Koke not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marcos Llorente not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Matteo Ruggeri not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Nahuel Molina on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ademola Lookman not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 60% of goal output missing (only 32% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critically weakened Atlético squad: Only 33% of the usual starting XI strength is available, with key players like Julián Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann missing
- Elche's strong home defense: The team concedes only an average of 0.8 goals per game at home
- Balanced pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis sees a very close match with 35% home win and 37% away win probability
Risks
- Away team fatigue: Atlético Madrid had only 4 days of rest since their last match
- Low shots on target efficiency: Both teams recorded an average of less than 3.5 shots on target in their last 5 games (Elche 3.4, Atlético Madrid 3.2)
- Declining goal production for both teams: Elche's goal production is stagnant (1.0), season average is 1.4; Atlético Madrid's goal production is stagnant (1.4), season average is 2.0
All probabilities
Result
Elche35%
Draw28%
Atlético de Madrid37%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
Elche or draw63%
Atlético de Madrid or draw65%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Elche: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- Elche with Adrià Pedrosa: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Elche: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Elche: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Atlético Madrid with Nico González: 3.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Elche 3-5-2 · Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2
Elche
- 1 M. Dituro
- 42 A. Sangaré Traoré
- 22 D. Affengruber
- 21 L. Pétrot
- 15 J. Morente Oliva
- 12 G. Villar del Fraile
- 14 A. Febas Pérez
- 16 M. Carvalho Neto
- 11 G. Karabinaite
- 10 R. Mir Vicente
- 9 A. Valente Silva
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 32 J. Franco
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 15 C. Lenglet
- 34 J. Del Romo
- 23 N. González
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 21 O. Vaargas
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 11 T. Almada
Substitutes
- 13 I. Peña Sotorres
- 17 J. Fernández Pomares
- 23 V. Chust García
- 7 Y. de Santiago
- 20 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
- 3 A. Giner Pedrosa
- 39 H. García
- 18 J. Donald
- 45 A. Iturbe Encabo
- 5 F. Redondo Solari
- 6 P. Bigas Rigo
- 24 L. Cepeda
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 20 G. Simeone
- 1 J. Musso
- 16 N. Molina Lucero
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 29 R. Belaid Khellil
- 40 A. Puric
- 37 I. Luque Sierra
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
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