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La Liga

Mallorca - Valencia

04/21/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Mallorca
1.1
Total xG
2.4
Valencia
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
MALVAL

Mallorca

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.20
Mateo Joseph not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Zito Luvumbo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Valencia

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Luis Rioja on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists)
Javi Guerra on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Eray Cömert not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mallorca: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Mallorca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Mallorca with Zito Luvumbo: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Mallorca: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Valencia with André Almeida: 3.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

31%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: Valencia has a higher win probability at 38% compared to Mallorca's 31%
  • Mallorca's improved form: The team is currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 2.0 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.3 goals)
  • Valencia's away weakness: Valencia concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Valencia's high number of away goals conceded (Avg. 2.33 per game)
  • Historically even head-to-head record with 3 draws in 5 matches increases the likelihood of a draw
Overview

Mallorca (15th place, 34 points) host Valencia (14th place, 35 points) at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix

La Liga match on April 21, 2026, 5:00 PM

Both teams are in the lower half of the table, fighting for crucial points

Form

Mallorca's form across all competitions is: DWLWW

This corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 games

The last match result was a 3-0 win against Rayo Vallecano

The current form shows a positive trend, with an average of 2.0 goals per game recently compared to 1.3 for the season average

Valencia's form across all competitions is: WLWLL

This means 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses in the last 5 games

Valencia recently lost 0-1 against Elche

The form trend is stable and Valencia consistently scores an average of 1.4 goals per game

Statistics

Mallorca scored 39 goals this season (Avg. 1.26 per game) and conceded 48 goals (Avg. 1.55 per game)

Valencia scored 34 goals (Avg. 1.10 per game) and conceded 46 goals (Avg. 1.48 per game)

At home, Mallorca averages 1.24 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per home game

Valencia concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game and scores 1.08 goals

The Estadi Mallorca Son Moix has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, Mallorca won 1, Valencia won 1, and there were 3 draws

Both teams scored 4 goals each in direct comparisons

The last encounter on December 19, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw

The recent head-to-head record is even

Key Players

Mallorca's offense is led by Vedat Muriqi with 21 season goals and 1 assist, whose form shows a rising trend (5 goals in the last 5 games)

In midfield, Pablo Torre contributes with 3 season goals and 3 assists, his form is also rising (2 goals, 1 assist in the last 5 games)

Sergi Darder has contributed 1 goal and 4 assists this season

For Valencia, Largie Ramazani is the top scorer with 5 season goals and 1 assist

Umar Sadiq was involved in 1 season goal and 2 assists

Guido RodrĂ­guez scored 2 goals this season, with 2 in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Mallorca's goalkeeper Leo RomĂĄn has appeared in 26 games and kept 4 clean sheets

Valencia's goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski made 13 season appearances and achieved 8 clean sheets

Influences

Mallorca shows solid home strength with an average of 1.24 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded at home

Analysis of the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix shows an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 60% of the last 5 games at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%

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