La Liga
Mallorca - Valencia
04/21/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.4
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
11%0:1
10%1:0
9%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Mallorca
Valencia
The Lab
- 1Mallorca: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Mallorca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 3Mallorca with Zito Luvumbo: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Mallorca: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Valencia with André Almeida: 3.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
31%
Draw
31%
Away Win
38%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
62%
Away or Draw
69%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Valencia has a higher win probability at 38% compared to Mallorca's 31%
- Mallorca's improved form: The team is currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 2.0 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.3 goals)
- Valencia's away weakness: Valencia concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Valencia's high number of away goals conceded (Avg. 2.33 per game)
- Historically even head-to-head record with 3 draws in 5 matches increases the likelihood of a draw
Overview
Mallorca (15th place, 34 points) host Valencia (14th place, 35 points) at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
La Liga match on April 21, 2026, 5:00 PM
Both teams are in the lower half of the table, fighting for crucial points
Form
Mallorca's form across all competitions is: DWLWW
This corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 games
The last match result was a 3-0 win against Rayo Vallecano
The current form shows a positive trend, with an average of 2.0 goals per game recently compared to 1.3 for the season average
Valencia's form across all competitions is: WLWLL
This means 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses in the last 5 games
Valencia recently lost 0-1 against Elche
The form trend is stable and Valencia consistently scores an average of 1.4 goals per game
Statistics
Mallorca scored 39 goals this season (Avg. 1.26 per game) and conceded 48 goals (Avg. 1.55 per game)
Valencia scored 34 goals (Avg. 1.10 per game) and conceded 46 goals (Avg. 1.48 per game)
At home, Mallorca averages 1.24 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per home game
Valencia concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game and scores 1.08 goals
The Estadi Mallorca Son Moix has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, Mallorca won 1, Valencia won 1, and there were 3 draws
Both teams scored 4 goals each in direct comparisons
The last encounter on December 19, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw
The recent head-to-head record is even
Key Players
Mallorca's offense is led by Vedat Muriqi with 21 season goals and 1 assist, whose form shows a rising trend (5 goals in the last 5 games)
In midfield, Pablo Torre contributes with 3 season goals and 3 assists, his form is also rising (2 goals, 1 assist in the last 5 games)
Sergi Darder has contributed 1 goal and 4 assists this season
For Valencia, Largie Ramazani is the top scorer with 5 season goals and 1 assist
Umar Sadiq was involved in 1 season goal and 2 assists
Guido RodrĂguez scored 2 goals this season, with 2 in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Mallorca's goalkeeper Leo RomĂĄn has appeared in 26 games and kept 4 clean sheets
Valencia's goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski made 13 season appearances and achieved 8 clean sheets
Influences
Mallorca shows solid home strength with an average of 1.24 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded at home
Analysis of the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix shows an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 60% of the last 5 games at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%