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La Liga

Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Club

05/02/2026, 04:30 PM

2 : 4
Expected Goals
Deportivo Alavés
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Athletic Club
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
DAAC

Deportivo Alavés

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.29
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.29
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 10, 7 places gap)
-0.09
Lucas Boyé not in squad (11 goals, 1 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

Athletic Club

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.46
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.34
Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 17, 7 places gap)
+0.03
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.00
Álex Berenguer on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Oihan Sancet on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Athletic Club with Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Deportivo Alavés: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Deportivo Alavés with Ibrahim Diabaté: 4.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Athletic Club: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Deportivo Alavés: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

33%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Prediction: The model calculates a 41% win probability for Deportivo Alavés and 27% for Athletic Club
  • Offensive Form: Deportivo Alavés currently scores more frequently (2.4 goals per game) than their season average (1.4 goals per game)
  • Away Defense: Athletic Club concedes an average of 2.07 goals per game away from home
Risk Factors
  • Athletic Club concedes an average of 2.07 goals per game away from home
  • Deportivo Alavés has only 2 home clean sheets this season
Overview

Deportivo Alavés (17th place, 36 points) host Athletic Club (10th place, 41 points) at the Estadio de Mendizorroza. The La Liga match takes place on May 2, 2026, 6:30 PM. Alavés are battling against relegation, while Athletic aims to consolidate its position in the upper mid-table.

Form

Deportivo Alavés shows a form of WDDLW in their last five matches. This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last match was a win. Athletic Club has a form of WLLWL, with 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses from their last five encounters. Their last match ended in a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Deportivo Alavés scored an average of 1.15 goals per game this season and conceded 1.48 goals. At home, they scored 1.17 goals and conceded 1.06 goals per game. Athletic Club averaged 1.09 goals per game and conceded 1.45 goals. Away from home, Athletic Club conceded an average of 2.07 goals per game. The Estadio de Mendizorroza has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in its last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games (80%), and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games (60%).

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Alavés won 1 time, Athletic Club won 3 times, and 1 match ended in a draw. Alavés scored 2 goals, while Athletic scored 6 goals. The last encounter on September 13, 2025, saw Deportivo Alavés win 1-0 away against Athletic Club.

Key Players

For Deportivo Alavés, Toni Martínez is a key player with 11 season goals and 3 assists, scoring 5 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rising form. Abde Rebbach contributed 1 goal and 2 assists this season and showed a rising form with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games. Ángel Pérez recorded 1 goal and 2 assists this season and maintained stable form with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games. For Athletic Club, Gorka Guruzeta is an important attacker with 9 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 3 goals in the last 5 games. Nico Williams scored 4 season goals and 2 assists. Iñaki Williams contributed 2 season goals and 4 assists, with 2 assists in the last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Deportivo Alavés goalkeeper Antonio Sivera recorded 3 clean sheets this season. Athletic Club goalkeeper Unai Simón has 6 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Deportivo Alavés has a home advantage, as the team scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.06 goals at home. The Estadio de Mendizorroza is known for matches with an average of 3.0 goals, an 80% BTTS rate, and a 60% Over 2.5 rate.

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