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La Liga

Celta de Vigo - Elche

05/03/2026, 12:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Celta de Vigo
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Elche
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
CDVELC

Celta de Vigo

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.33
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.33
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.33
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.22
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 14, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Borja Iglesias on the bench (12 goals, 2 assists)
Óscar Mingueza on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Pablo DurĂĄn on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Elche

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 6, 8 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.03
Rafa Mir not in squad (8 goals, 0 assists)
GermĂĄn Valera not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Elche: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Celta de Vigo: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Elche with Pedro Bigas: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Celta de Vigo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

30%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Contrasting forms: Celta de Vigo recorded five consecutive losses, while Elche won four of their last five matches
  • Visiting team's defensive weakness: Elche concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game, making their defense vulnerable
  • Model prediction: Despite Celta de Vigo's poor form, the mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 43% probability and 1.37 expected home goals
Risk Factors
  • Celta de Vigo's offensive struggles: The home team averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • High goal average at the stadium: Estadio de BalaĂ­dos saw an average of 3.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches, suggesting an open game
Overview

Celta de Vigo (6th place, 44 points) hosts Elche (14th place, 38 points) at Estadio de BalaĂ­dos

La Liga match on May 3, 2026, 2:00 PM

Celta de Vigo aims to consolidate its position in the European qualification spots, while Elche strives to move away from the relegation zone

Form

Celta de Vigo shows a concerning form with five losses in their last five games (L L L L L)

Recent results include a 1-2 away loss against Villarreal and a 0-1 away loss against FC Barcelona

At home, Celta lost 1-3 to SC Freiburg and 0-3 to Real Oviedo

Elche, on the other hand, presents strong form with four wins and one loss in their last five games (W L W W W)

The team won 2-1 away against Real Oviedo and 3-2 at home against Atlético Madrid

They defeated Valencia 1-0 at home and Mallorca 2-1 at home

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Celta de Vigo averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they averaged 1.35 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded

Elche recorded an average of 1.33 goals scored and 1.52 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Elche conceded an average of 2.67 goals per game while scoring 1.33

At Estadio de BalaĂ­dos, the last five matches saw an average of 3.8 total goals per game

In 80% of these games, both teams scored (BTTS), and in 80% there were over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has only been one direct encounter between these two teams so far

Elche won this away match 2-1 on September 28, 2025

Historically, Elche dominated in this sole meeting

Key Players

Celta de Vigo relies on Ferran JutglĂ , who contributed 7 goals and 2 assists this season, but recently showed a declining form

Iago Aspas scored 4 goals and 3 assists this season and maintains a stable form

Hugo Álvarez contributed 3 goals and 1 assist to the offense, showing stable form

Not nominated are Borja Iglesias (12 goals, 2 assists), Óscar Mingueza (1 goal, 4 assists), and Pablo Durán (2 goals, 2 assists)

For Elche, André Silva is the top scorer with 9 goals and shows stable form, with 2 goals in his last 4 games

Álvaro Rodríguez shined with 5 goals and 5 assists, but his form is declining

Aleix Febas scored 2 goals and 3 assists, his form is stable

Not nominated are Rafa Mir (8 goals, 0 assists) and GermĂĄn Valera (4 goals, 4 assists)

Goalkeepers

Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper, Ionuț Radu, recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Ionuț Radu's current form is declining

Elche's goalkeeper MatĂ­as Dituro registered 7 clean sheets this season

MatĂ­as Dituro shows stable form

Influences

Estadio de BalaĂ­dos is known for high-scoring encounters, with an average of 3.8 goals per game in the last five matches

80% of games saw both teams score and 80% had over 2.5 goals

Celta de Vigo averages 1.35 goals scored at home but concedes 1.41 goals

Elche struggles defensively away from home, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per game

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