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La Liga

Espanyol - Real Madrid

05/03/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Espanyol
1.1
Total xG
2.9
Real Madrid
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
ESPRM

Espanyol

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.25
Declining form (0.7 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.13
Kike GarcĂ­a on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Pol Lozano not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Cyril Ngonge not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Real Madrid

Attack strength (1.5x league average)
+0.74
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.18
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.09
Kylian Mbappé not in squad (24 goals, 4 assists)
Arda GĂŒler not in squad (4 goals, 9 assists)
Éder Militão  not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 61% available)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Madrid: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Espanyol with Pere Milla: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Real Madrid: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Real Madrid with Thiago Pitarch: 3.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Real Madrid: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

26%

Away Win

51%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

49%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Real Madrid has a high win probability of 51% according to mathematical analysis
  • Real Madrid shows a significantly stronger offense with an average of 2.06 goals per game compared to Espanyol's 1.12 goals
  • Recent head-to-head matches have been dominated by Real Madrid
Risk Factors
  • Real Madrid are missing Kylian MbappĂ©, Arda GĂŒler, and Éder MilitĂŁo, with only 61% of usual goal threat available
  • Espanyol averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Real Madrid's goal production has recently stalled with 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 2.2 goals
Overview

Espanyol (12th place, 39 points) host Real Madrid (2nd place, 74 points) at the RCDE Stadium

This La Liga match is scheduled for May 3, 2026, 9:00 PM

Real Madrid are fighting to close the gap to the top of the table, while Espanyol needs crucial points in the relegation battle

Form

Espanyol's form in the last five matches is LDLLD

This includes 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

Their last match ended in a draw

Real Madrid's form over the last five games is LDLWD

They recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Their most recent game was also a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Espanyol averaged 1.12 goals scored per game this season and conceded 1.48 goals

They kept 9 clean sheets

Real Madrid scored an average of 2.06 goals per game and conceded 0.94 goals

They achieved 11 clean sheets

The RCDE Stadium averages 1.8 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, Espanyol secured 1 win and Real Madrid claimed 2 wins

Espanyol scored 2 goals in these encounters, while Real Madrid scored 6 goals

The last meeting on September 20, 2025, ended with a 0-2 victory for Real Madrid

Real Madrid have been the dominant team in recent direct clashes

Key Players

For Espanyol, key players include Roberto FernĂĄndez, Carlos Romero, and Edu ExpĂłsito

Roberto FernĂĄndez, an attacker, scored 6 goals and 2 assists this season, with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Carlos Romero, a defender, contributed 5 goals and 2 assists this season

Edu ExpĂłsito, a midfielder, provided 1 goal and 6 assists this season

For Real Madrid, key players are Vinicius Junior, Federico Valverde, and Jude Bellingham

Vinicius Junior, an attacker, scored 13 goals and 5 assists this season, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Federico Valverde, a midfielder, recorded 5 goals and 8 assists this season, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Jude Bellingham, a midfielder, scored 4 goals and 3 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Manuel Iori is the primary goalkeeper for Espanyol

Andriy Lunin is the designated goalkeeper for Real Madrid

Espanyol recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Real Madrid kept 11 clean sheets this season

Influences

Espanyol scored an average of 1.12 goals at home and conceded 1.31 goals

Real Madrid scored an average of 2.07 goals away and conceded 1.21 goals

The RCDE Stadium averages 1.8 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches at this stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches

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