La Liga
Getafe - Rayo Vallecano
05/03/2026, 02:15 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
1.7
0.8
0:0
20%1:1
15%1:0
14%0:1
14%2:0
7%What influences the xG?
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano
The Lab
- 1Rayo Vallecano with Ăscar ValentĂn: 0.8 goals/90 min. Without: 6.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 2Getafe: 77% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 3Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 4Getafe with Abdel Abqar: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 3.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Rayo Vallecano: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 6 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
38%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
52%
Under 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
24%
Under 2.5
76%
Over 3.5
9%
Under 3.5
91%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
63%
Both Score
Yes
34%
No
66%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis shows a high probability of 70% for a home win or a draw
- Rayo Vallecano suffers from a weak away defense, conceding an average of 2.25 goals per game
- Getafe displays a solid home defense, conceding only 0.81 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Rayo Vallecano plays with reduced starting lineup strength (77% of usual strength) and only 21% of the usual assist production
- Rayo Vallecano has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Getafe averaged only 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Getafe (7th place, 44 points) host Rayo Vallecano (11th place, 39 points) at Coliseum Alfonso PĂ©rez
La Liga match on May 3, 2026, 4:15 PM
Getafe is fighting for European spots, while Rayo could climb in the mid-table
Form
Getafe's form across all competitions: WWLWL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)
The home team lost their last match
Rayo Vallecano's form: LLWDW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
The visitors won their last match
Statistics
Getafe scores an average of 0.85 goals and concedes 1.03 goals per game
At home, the average is 0.88 goals scored and 0.81 goals conceded
Getafe kept 10 clean sheets
Rayo Vallecano scores an average of 1.00 goal and concedes 1.24 goals per game
Away, the average is 1.00 goal scored and 2.25 goals conceded
Rayo Vallecano also kept 10 clean sheets
At the Coliseum Alfonso PĂ©rez, the last 5 matches averaged 2.0 goals per game
In only 1 of 5 games did both teams score, and only 1 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Getafe has 0 wins, Rayo Vallecano has 2 wins, and there were 3 draws
Getafe scored 1 goal in total, while Rayo Vallecano scored 4 goals
The last match on January 2, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw
Rayo Vallecano dominated recent encounters
Key Players
For Getafe, Luis Milla (9 assists) is an important midfielder
Mauro Arambarri has 6 season goals, with 1 goal in the last 5 games
Attacker MartĂn Satriano scored 4 season goals
For Rayo Vallecano, Jorge de Frutos is crucial with 10 season goals
Sergio Camello scored 2 goals in the last 5 games and Alexandre Zurawski also scored 2 goals in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Getafe's goalkeeper David Soria played 33 season games and kept 10 clean sheets
Augusto Batalla of Rayo Vallecano was in goal for 30 season games and also recorded 10 clean sheets
Influences
Getafe shows strong defensive performance at home with an average of 0.81 goals conceded
The Coliseum Alfonso PĂ©rez recorded an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with a low probability for both teams to score (1 out of 5 games) and for over 2.5 goals (1 out of 5 games)