Match report →
Valencia – Atlético de Madrid0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Valencia
1.50
Total xG
2.64
Atlético de Madrid
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Valencia | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Lucas Beltrán not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Eray Cömert on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Julián Alvarez not in squad (8 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Giuliano Simeone not in squad (4 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Antoine Griezmann on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Koke on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marcos Llorente not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Matteo Ruggeri on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ademola Lookman on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 73% of goal output missing (only 28% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical weakening of Atlético Madrid: Only 28% of usual goal threat available without Julián Alvarez, Giuliano Simeone, Antoine Griezmann, Koke, Marcos Llorente, Matteo Ruggeri, Ademola Lookman
- Mathematical analysis forecast: Valencia is favored with a home win probability of 44%
- Valencia's home strength: Only 0.90 goals conceded per home game, contrasting with Atlético's weak away defense conceding 1.91 goals per game
Risks
- Atlético Madrid with only 3 days rest since their last match
- Atlético Madrid concedes an average of 1.91 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Valencia44%
Draw29%
Atlético de Madrid27%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Valencia or draw73%
Atlético de Madrid or draw56%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Valencia with Unai Núñez: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Atlético Madrid: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Valencia: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Valencia: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Valencia: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Lineups
Valencia 4-4-2 · Atlético de Madrid 4-5-1
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 20 R. Saravia
- 5 C. Tárrega Requeni
- 18 J. García Vayá
- 14 J. Gayá Peña
- 11 L. Rioja González
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
- 2 G. Rodríguez
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 17 L. Ramazani
- 6 U. Sadiq Mesbah
Atlético de Madrid
- 1 J. Musso
- 32 J. Franco
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 15 C. Lenglet
- 34 J. Del Romo
- 16 N. Molina Lucero
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 21 O. Vaargas
- 11 T. Almada
- 29 R. Belaid Khellil
Substitutes
- 22 B. Santamaría
- 13 C. Rivero Sabater
- 7 A. Danjuma
- 24 E. Cömert
- 10 D. Ribeiro Almeida
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 16 D. López Noguerol
- 9 H. Duro
- 19 D. Raba Antolí
- 26 R. Iranzo Lendínez
- 29 L. Nuñez Ramirez
- 4 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 3 M. Ruggeri
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 13 J. Oblak
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 40 A. Puric
- 37 I. Luque Sierra
- 61 M. Llorente Cubo
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