La Liga
Valencia - Atlético Madrid
05/02/2026, 02:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.6
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Valencia
Atlético Madrid
The Lab
- 1Valencia with Unai Núñez: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Atlético Madrid: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Valencia: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Valencia: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5Valencia: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
29%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Critical weakening of Atlético Madrid: Only 28% of usual goal threat available without Julián Alvarez, Giuliano Simeone, Antoine Griezmann, Koke, Marcos Llorente, Matteo Ruggeri, Ademola Lookman
- Mathematical analysis forecast: Valencia is favored with a home win probability of 44%
- Valencia's home strength: Only 0.90 goals conceded per home game, contrasting with Atlético's weak away defense conceding 1.91 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Atlético Madrid with only 3 days rest since their last match
- Atlético Madrid concedes an average of 1.91 goals per away game
Overview
Valencia (12th place, 39 points) host Atlético Madrid (4th place, 60 points) at the Estadio de Mestalla. The La Liga match takes place on May 2, 2026, 4:15 PM. Valencia are fighting to catch up to the mid-table, while Atlético aims to consolidate their Champions League spot.
Form
Valencia's form in their last five league games is WLLDW, consisting of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last result was a win. Atlético Madrid's form in their last five competitive matches is LDLWD, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their most recent game ended in a draw. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Valencia averages 1.12 goals scored per game and concedes 1.45 goals. At home, these figures improve to 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per home game. Atlético Madrid is stronger offensively with an average of 1.70 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per game. Away from home, the Madrid side concedes 1.91 goals per game. At the Estadio de Mestalla, an average of 3.2 total goals are scored per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches and 60% of games having over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct encounters, Atlético Madrid dominated with 4 wins, while Valencia secured 1 win. There were no draws. The goal difference is 10:4 in favor of Atlético Madrid. The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for Atlético Madrid on December 13, 2025. Although Atlético has been dominant recently, Valencia won their last home match against Atlético 3-0.
Key Players
For Valencia, Largie Ramazani (6 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.84 rating), Umar Sadiq (3 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.73 rating), and Luis Rioja (2 goals, 5 assists, avg 6.83 rating) are crucial. Ramazani scored 2 goals in his last five games. Sadiq also contributed 2 goals and 1 assist. For Atlético Madrid, Thiago Almada (3 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.81 rating), Nahuel Molina (2 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.76 rating), and Robin Le Normand (1 goal, 1 assist, avg 6.67 rating) are important players.
Goalkeepers
Valencia's goalkeeper, Stole Dimitrievski, has achieved 8 clean sheets this season. For Atlético Madrid, Juan Musso has recorded 5 clean sheets.
Influences
The Estadio de Mestalla tends to feature high-scoring games, with an average of 3.2 goals per match. In 60% of games at this stadium, both teams scored, and 60% of games had over 2.5 goals. Valencia displays solid home defense, conceding only 0.90 goals per home game.