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La Liga

Villarreal - Levante

05/02/2026, 12:00 PM

5 : 1
Expected Goals
Villarreal
2.3
Total xG
3.1
Levante
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

2:1

10%

1:1

10%

3:0

9%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
VILLEV

Villarreal

Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+0.84
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 19, 16 places gap)
+0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Pape Gueye on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Santiago Mouriño on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Levante

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.27
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 3, 16 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.05
AdriĂĄn Dela not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Manu SĂĄnchez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Villarreal: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Levante: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 3
    Villarreal with Dani Parejo: 7.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Villarreal: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Villarreal: 81% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

20%

Away Win

11%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

89%

Away or Draw

31%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Favorite role: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Villarreal with 69%
  • Home strength: Villarreal averages 1.8 goals scored and only 0.7 goals conceded at home
  • Offensive performance: Villarreal scores consistently (~1.6 goals per game)
  • Squad absences: For Villarreal, Pape Gueye (4G/2A) and Santiago Mouriño (1G/2A) are not nominated
  • Squad absences: For Levante, AdriĂĄn Dela (2G/1A) and Manu SĂĄnchez (1G/2A) are not nominated
Risk Factors
  • Levante shows a positive attacking form trend, currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.2)
  • Villarreal lost the only direct encounter against Levante with a 0-1 score
Overview

Villarreal (3rd place, 65 points) host Levante (19th place, 33 points) at the Estadio de la CerĂĄmica. The La Liga match takes place on May 2, 2026, 2:00 PM. Villarreal aims to consolidate its top table positions, while Levante needs crucial points in the relegation battle.

Form

Villarreal's form in the last 5 games is WLWDW

Levante's form in the last 5 games is WLWWD

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Villarreal achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last result was a 2-1 win against Celta de Vigo

Levante recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last result was a 0-0 draw against Espanyol

Statistics

Villarreal scores an average of 1.79 goals per game and concedes 1.15 goals per game this season

Villarreal kept 8 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 20 matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 19 matches

Levante scores an average of 1.12 goals per game and concedes 1.52 goals per game this season

Levante kept 8 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 15 matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 13 matches

The Estadio de la CerĂĄmica sees an average of 3.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games

Over 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 games

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between the teams

Levante has 1 win, Villarreal has 0 wins

There have been 0 draws

Levante scored 1 goal, Villarreal scored 0 goals

The last encounter on February 18, 2026, ended in a 1-0 victory for Levante

Key Players

Georges Mikautadze is a key attacker for Villarreal with 9 goals and 5 assists

Alberto Moleiro contributed 9 goals and 4 assists

Gerard Moreno is also a decisive player with 9 goals

For Levante, Carlos EspĂ­ is an important offensive player with 8 goals

IvĂĄn Romero scored 7 goals and 1 assist

Carlos Álvarez is involved with 3 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Villarreal's goalkeeper, Arnau Tenas, played 5 season games

Mathew Ryan, Levante's goalkeeper, played 31 season games

Villarreal kept 8 clean sheets this season

Levante kept 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

Villarreal shows a strong performance at home with an average of 1.8 goals scored and only 0.7 goals conceded per home game

The Estadio de la CerĂĄmica is known for high-scoring games with an average of 3.2 goals per match

The pitch surface is grass

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