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La Liga

Sevilla - Real Sociedad

05/04/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Sevilla
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Real Sociedad
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

1:0

9%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SEVRS

Sevilla

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.25
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 9, 9 places gap)
-0.12
Akor Adams on the bench (8 goals, 4 assists)
Djibril Sow not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Oso on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Juanlu Sánchez on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
22% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

Real Sociedad

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 18, 9 places gap)
+0.05
Orri Óskarsson on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
Luka Sucic on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 95% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sevilla with Gabriel Suazo: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Real Sociedad with Gonçalo Guedes: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Real Sociedad: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

31%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Real Sociedad averaged 5.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Sevilla's 1.2
  • Current Form: Real Sociedad is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.7), while Sevilla's goal production is stagnant (0.6)
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a home win probability of 35%, a draw probability of 31%, and an away win probability of 34%, indicating a balanced match
Risk Factors
  • Offensive efficiency: Sevilla only averaged 1.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Away defense: Real Sociedad concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game
Overview

Sevilla (18th place, 34 points) host Real Sociedad (9th place, 43 points) at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

La Liga match on May 4, 2026, 9:00 PM

The home team is fighting against relegation, while the visitors are playing for a better league position

Form

Sevilla shows poor form in their last five games with 1 win and 4 losses (Form: LLWLL)

The team recently lost away to Osasuna 1-2 and to Levante 0-2

A home win was achieved against Atlético Madrid 2-1

Real Sociedad is in more stable form in their last five games with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss (Form: WDDLD)

The team recently drew 3-3 away against Rayo Vallecano and 2-2 away against Atlético Madrid

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sevilla scores an average of 1.21 goals per game this season and concedes 1.67 goals

In home games, Sevilla averages 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

Real Sociedad has an average of 1.58 goals scored and 1.58 goals conceded per game this season

Away from home, Real Sociedad concedes a high average of 2.08 goals per game

An average of 2.2 total goals were scored at the venue

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, while only 1 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Sevilla and 3 wins for Real Sociedad

Sevilla scored a total of 6 goals, Real Sociedad 8 goals

The last encounter was won by Real Sociedad 2-1 away on October 24, 2025

Real Sociedad has proven to be the more dominant team in recent encounters

Key Players

For Sevilla, Isaac Romero is an important attacker with 4 season goals and shows a rising form trend

Rubén Vargas contributed 3 goals and 5 assists so far, and his form is stable

Nemanja Gudelj scored 2 goals this season, including 1 goal in the last five games, and shows a stable form

For Real Sociedad, Mikel Oyarzabal is the top scorer with 14 goals and 3 assists, and his form is stable

Ander Barrenetxea provided 3 goals and 5 assists, with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last five games, and shows a stable form

Carlos Soler recorded 4 goals and 3 assists, including 1 assist in his last five appearances, and his form is stable

Goalkeepers

Sevilla goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos played in 29 season games

The home team recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Real Sociedad goalkeeper Álex Remiro played 33 season games

The away team achieved 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Sevilla appears slightly stronger offensively and more stable defensively at home than their season average

The Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán saw an average of 2.2 goals in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 80% of the games at this venue

Only 20% of the games ended with over 2.5 goals

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