La Liga
Sevilla - Real Sociedad
05/04/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.5
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
10%1:0
9%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Sevilla
Real Sociedad
The Lab
- 1Sevilla with Gabriel Suazo: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Real Sociedad with Gonçalo Guedes: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Real Sociedad: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
31%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Tactical advantage: Real Sociedad averaged 5.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Sevilla's 1.2
- Current Form: Real Sociedad is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.7), while Sevilla's goal production is stagnant (0.6)
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a home win probability of 35%, a draw probability of 31%, and an away win probability of 34%, indicating a balanced match
Risk Factors
- Offensive efficiency: Sevilla only averaged 1.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Away defense: Real Sociedad concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game
Overview
Sevilla (18th place, 34 points) host Real Sociedad (9th place, 43 points) at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
La Liga match on May 4, 2026, 9:00 PM
The home team is fighting against relegation, while the visitors are playing for a better league position
Form
Sevilla shows poor form in their last five games with 1 win and 4 losses (Form: LLWLL)
The team recently lost away to Osasuna 1-2 and to Levante 0-2
A home win was achieved against Atlético Madrid 2-1
Real Sociedad is in more stable form in their last five games with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss (Form: WDDLD)
The team recently drew 3-3 away against Rayo Vallecano and 2-2 away against Atlético Madrid
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Sevilla scores an average of 1.21 goals per game this season and concedes 1.67 goals
In home games, Sevilla averages 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded
Real Sociedad has an average of 1.58 goals scored and 1.58 goals conceded per game this season
Away from home, Real Sociedad concedes a high average of 2.08 goals per game
An average of 2.2 total goals were scored at the venue
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, while only 1 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Sevilla and 3 wins for Real Sociedad
Sevilla scored a total of 6 goals, Real Sociedad 8 goals
The last encounter was won by Real Sociedad 2-1 away on October 24, 2025
Real Sociedad has proven to be the more dominant team in recent encounters
Key Players
For Sevilla, Isaac Romero is an important attacker with 4 season goals and shows a rising form trend
Rubén Vargas contributed 3 goals and 5 assists so far, and his form is stable
Nemanja Gudelj scored 2 goals this season, including 1 goal in the last five games, and shows a stable form
For Real Sociedad, Mikel Oyarzabal is the top scorer with 14 goals and 3 assists, and his form is stable
Ander Barrenetxea provided 3 goals and 5 assists, with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last five games, and shows a stable form
Carlos Soler recorded 4 goals and 3 assists, including 1 assist in his last five appearances, and his form is stable
Goalkeepers
Sevilla goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos played in 29 season games
The home team recorded 5 clean sheets this season
Real Sociedad goalkeeper Álex Remiro played 33 season games
The away team achieved 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
Sevilla appears slightly stronger offensively and more stable defensively at home than their season average
The Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán saw an average of 2.2 goals in the last 5 games
Both teams scored in 80% of the games at this venue
Only 20% of the games ended with over 2.5 goals