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La Liga

Osasuna - FC Barcelona

05/02/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Osasuna
1.4
Total xG
2.8
FC Barcelona
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
OSAFB

Osasuna

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.23
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.11
Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+0.02
Víctor Muñoz not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Aimar Oroz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 94% available)

FC Barcelona

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (1.8 vs 2.6 season average)
-0.23
Attack strength (1.62x league average)
+0.20
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.02
Lamine Yamal not in squad (16 goals, 11 assists)
Ferran Torres on the bench (14 goals, 1 assists)
Jules Koundé not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 77% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Barcelona: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    FC Barcelona: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 3
    Osasuna: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 4
    Osasuna: 78% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 9)

  • 5
    Osasuna: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

28%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Form advantage: FC Barcelona shows convincing current form with 4 consecutive wins, while Osasuna has a mixed recent record
  • Offensive power: FC Barcelona averages 2.64 goals per season, significantly above Osasuna's 1.18 goals
  • Historical dominance: FC Barcelona has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Osasuna, scoring twice as many goals
Overview

Osasuna (9th place, 42 points) host league leaders FC Barcelona (1st place, 85 points) at Estadio El Sadar

La Liga match on May 2, 2026, 9:00 PM

The hosts are fighting for a better mid-table position, while Barcelona aims to dominate the league

Form

Osasuna shows a form of WDDLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

In their last five matches, they recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

They recently won 2-1 at home against Sevilla

FC Barcelona displays a strong form of LWWWW

They achieved 4 wins and 1 loss in their last five games

The team recently won 2-0 away against Getafe and has a streak of 4 consecutive wins

Statistics

Osasuna scores an average of 1.18 goals per game and concedes 1.21 goals

At home, they are defensively stronger, conceding an average of 0.75 goals per home game

So far, they have kept 7 clean sheets, with 5 of them at home

FC Barcelona is offensively strong, scoring an average of 2.64 goals per game and conceding 0.91 goals

Away from home, they score an average of 2.69 goals and concede 1.62 goals

They have recorded 14 clean sheets this season, with 5 in away matches

Statistics at Estadio El Sadar show an average of 2.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches at the stadium

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, FC Barcelona leads with 4 wins, compared to 1 win for Osasuna and 0 draws

The goal difference is 10:5 in favor of FC Barcelona

The last encounter on December 13, 2025, ended with a 2-0 victory for Barcelona

FC Barcelona has been the more dominant side in recent meetings

Key Players

For Osasuna, Ante Budimir is a key attacker with 16 season goals, his form (1 goal in 344 min, rating 6.41) is declining

Rubén García contributed 2 goals and 5 assists, with a slightly declining form (rating 6.61)

Defender Alejandro Catena scored 3 goals and 2 assists and also shows a declining form (rating 6.69)

Not nominated for Osasuna are V. Muñoz Villanueva (5 goals, 2 assists) and Aimar Oroz (0 goals, 2 assists)

For FC Barcelona, Robert Lewandowski is a key player with 12 goals and 2 assists, his form is stable (rating 6.86)

Dani Olmo (7 goals, 7 assists) shows a slightly declining form (rating 6.99)

FermĂ­n LĂłpez (6 goals, 8 assists) is in stable form (1 goal in 327 min, rating 7.10)

Not nominated for Barcelona are Lamine Yamal (16 goals, 11 assists), Ferran Torres (14 goals, 1 assist) and Jules Koundé (1 goal, 3 assists)

Goalkeepers

Sergio Herrera is Osasuna's goalkeeper, he achieved 7 clean sheets this season

Joan GarcĂ­a is the goalkeeper for FC Barcelona and recorded 14 clean sheets

Osasuna kept a clean sheet in 5 home games, while Barcelona remained without conceding in 5 away matches

Influences

Osasuna shows moderate home strength with an average of 1.17 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded per home game

The grass pitch at Estadio El Sadar is the usual surface

The stadium's statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per game

Furthermore, both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches

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