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La Liga

Levante - Osasuna

05/08/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Levante
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Osasuna
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
LEVOSA

Levante

Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 10, 9 places gap)
-0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
IvĂĄn Romero not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

Osasuna

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 19, 9 places gap)
+0.04
Víctor Muñoz not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Osasuna: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Osasuna: 80% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 10)

  • 3
    Levante: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Osasuna: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (80', 90+9')

  • 5
    Osasuna: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

28%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Osasuna's weak away defense with an average of 2.44 goals conceded per away game
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 48% probability and 1.57 expected home goals
  • Levante showed improved home form with two wins and one draw in the last three home matches
Risk Factors
  • Levante's goal production is currently stagnating (1.0) compared to their season average (1.2), indicating a negative form trend
  • Osasuna's goal production is also stagnating (1.2) compared to their season average (1.6), showing a negative form trend
  • Levante must do without injured attacker I. Romero de Ávila Araque, who contributed 7 season goals and 1 assist
  • Osasuna is missing injured attacker V. Muñoz Villanueva with 5 season goals and 2 assists
  • Estadio Ciudad de Valencia shows a tendency for low-scoring matches with an average of 2.4 goals per game
Overview

Levante (19th place, 33 points) hosts Osasuna (10th place, 42 points) at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. The La Liga match takes place on May 8, 2026, 9:00 PM. Levante is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while Osasuna aims to establish itself in the upper half of the table

Form

Levante's form in the last five games shows two wins, one draw, and two losses (LWWDL). The last match ended in a 1-5 defeat against Villarreal, preceded by a 0-0 draw against Espanyol and a 2-0 win against Sevilla. Osasuna's form is similarly mixed with one win, two draws, and two losses (DDLWL). Osasuna recently lost 1-2 to FC Barcelona but defeated Sevilla 2-1. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Levante scores an average of 1.12 goals per game and concedes 1.62 goals. At home, the average is 1.11 goals scored and 1.37 goals conceded. Osasuna scores an average of 1.18 goals per match and concedes 1.24 goals. Away from home, Osasuna's defense is more vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.44 goals per game. At Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, an average of 2.4 goals are scored per game. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In direct confrontations between the two teams, there has only been one previous encounter. Osasuna won this match away on December 8, 2025, with a score of 2-0, scoring two goals and keeping a clean sheet

Key Players

For Levante, Carlos Espí with 9 season goals, Adriån Dela with 2 goals and 1 assist, and Pablo Martínez with 1 goal and 3 assists are important players. For Osasuna, Ante Budimir stands out with 16 season goals, followed by Alejandro Catena with 3 goals and 2 assists, and Rubén García with 2 goals and 5 assists

Goalkeepers

Mathew Ryan, Levante's goalkeeper, made 32 appearances this season and achieved 8 clean sheets. His form recently showed a declining trend. Osasuna's goalkeeper Sergio Herrera played in 34 matches and kept 7 clean sheets. His form also showed a recent decline

Influences

Levante enjoys home advantage at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. The stadium has a history of an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last five matches. In 2 of 5 games, both teams scored, and only in 1 of 5 games were there over 2.5 goals. This suggests generally low-scoring encounters at this venue

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