La Liga
Rayo Vallecano - Girona
05/11/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.9
1.0
1:1
12%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Rayo Vallecano
Girona
The Lab
- 1Girona with Ălex Moreno: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Girona: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 3Girona: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Rayo Vallecano with Ăscar ValentĂn: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 6.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 5Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
25%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Current Form: Rayo Vallecano has 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games, while Girona recorded 3 losses and 1 draw
- Mathematical Prediction: The model predicts a home win with 58% probability and expects 1.92 home goals
- Home and Away Strength: Rayo Vallecano has a strong home defense (avg. 0.7 goals conceded), while Girona is vulnerable away (avg. 1.62 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
- Rayo Vallecano had a short recovery window with only 4 days since their last match
- Girona averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Rayo Vallecano (11th place, 42 points) host Girona (17th place, 38 points) at the Estadio de Vallecas. The La Liga match takes place on May 11, 2026, 9:00 PM. Girona are close to the relegation zone and desperately need points to secure their league status.
Form
Rayo Vallecano are in excellent form, with a WDWWW record in their last five matches, comprising 4 wins and 1 draw. The team has achieved 3 consecutive wins recently. Girona, in contrast, shows poor form with WDLLL, which means 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. The away team has suffered 3 consecutive defeats recently. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Rayo Vallecano scores an average of 1.03 goals per game and concedes 1.21 goals per game this season. At home, they are particularly strong defensively, conceding an average of only 0.7 goals per home match. Girona scores an average of 1.06 goals and concedes 1.5 goals per match. Away from home, their average goals conceded is 1.62. Rayo Vallecano's home matches at Estadio de Vallecas average 2.4 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 1 of 5 matches and 2 of 5 matches ending with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the 5 head-to-head matches played so far, the record between Rayo Vallecano and Girona is even. Both teams have secured 2 wins each, with 1 match ending in a draw. The goal difference stands at 6:8 in favor of Girona. The last encounter saw Girona win 3-1 on August 15, 2025.
Key Players
For Rayo Vallecano, Jorge de Frutos (10 goals, 1 assist, average rating 6.91), Sergio Camello (3 goals, 0 assists, average rating 6.6, form: rising with 3 goals in last 5 games) and Florian Lejeune (1 goal, 1 assist, average rating 7.09, form: stable with 1 goal in last 5 games) are important players. For Girona, Viktor Tsygankov (6 goals, 4 assists, average rating 7.12), Azzedine Ounahi (5 goals, 2 assists, average rating 7.26) and Joel Roca (3 goals, 1 assist, average rating 6.57) stand out. All three show stable form with 1 goal each in their last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper, Augusto Batalla, has played 31 matches this season. His team kept 11 clean sheets this season. For Girona, Paulo Gazzaniga also played in 31 season matches. His team achieved 6 clean sheets.
Influences
Rayo Vallecano benefits from a noticeable home advantage, as the team concedes an average of only 0.7 goals per game at home. The Estadio de Vallecas stadium sees an average of 2.4 goals per match. According to statistics, only 20% of games here end with both teams scoring, and 40% end with over 2.5 goals.