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La Liga

FC Barcelona - Real Madrid

05/10/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
FC Barcelona
2.0
Total xG
3.5
Real Madrid
1.5
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

3:1

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
FBRM

FC Barcelona

Attack strength (1.45x league average)
+0.52
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.10
Lamine Yamal not in squad (16 goals, 11 assists)
Jules Koundé on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)

Real Madrid

Attack strength (1.56x league average)
+0.48
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Kylian Mbappé not in squad (24 goals, 4 assists)
Federico Valverde not in squad (5 goals, 8 assists)
Éder Militão  not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 61% available)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Madrid: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    FC Barcelona: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    FC Barcelona: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 4
    FC Barcelona with Frenkie de Jong: 8.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Real Madrid with Thiago Pitarch: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

24%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

69%

No

31%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for FC Barcelona with 47%
  • FC Barcelona is in excellent form with 5 consecutive wins
  • FC Barcelona's home strength is evident with an average of 2.6 goals scored and 0.45 goals conceded per home game
Risk Factors
  • Kylian MbappĂ©, Federico Valverde, Éder MilitĂŁo are missing for Real Madrid, with only 62% of goal threat available
  • FC Barcelona's goal production is stagnant (2.2), while the season average is 2.6
  • Real Madrid's goal production is stagnant (1.8), while the season average is 2.2
Overview

FC Barcelona (1st place, 88 points) host Real Madrid (2nd place, 77 points) at Camp Nou. The La Liga match is on May 10, 2026, 9:00 PM. This is a top-of-the-table clash where FC Barcelona aims to extend their lead

Form

FC Barcelona's form is excellent with 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses in their last 5 matches (WWWWW). They are in top form with 5 consecutive wins. Real Madrid has achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches (DLWDW). They managed a win in their last outing. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Barcelona averages 2.62 goals scored and 0.91 goals conceded per season. At home, they average 2.6 goals scored and 0.45 goals conceded. Real Madrid averages 2.06 goals scored and 0.91 goals conceded per season. Away from home, they average 2.07 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded. FC Barcelona recorded 14 clean sheets, Real Madrid 12. At Camp Nou, an average of 3.6 total goals were scored per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 40% of the games, and 40% of the games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the 5 direct encounters, FC Barcelona secured 3 wins, Real Madrid had 2 wins, and there were 0 draws. FC Barcelona scored 14 goals, while Real Madrid scored 10 goals. The last meeting was won by Real Madrid 2-1 on October 26, 2025. The home team (FC Barcelona) has been dominant in recent head-to-head matches

Key Players

Ferran Torres is a key attacking player for FC Barcelona with 15 goals and 1 assist in 30 season appearances, his form is rising with 4 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Marcus Rashford contributed with 7 goals and 8 assists in 29 season appearances, recently with 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 games. FermĂ­n LĂłpez has scored 6 goals and provided 9 assists in 28 season appearances and showed stable form in the last 5 games with 1 goal and 1 assist. For Real Madrid, Vinicius Junior is crucial with 15 goals and 5 assists in 33 season appearances, his form is rising with 4 goals and 1 assist in 5 games. Jude Bellingham recorded 4 goals and 4 assists in 24 season appearances and contributed 1 assist in the last 5 games. Gonzalo GarcĂ­a scored 4 goals and 1 assist in 26 season appearances, with 1 assist in his last 3 appearances

Goalkeepers

Joan GarcĂ­a is in goal for FC Barcelona and has recorded 14 clean sheets this season. Thibaut Courtois is Real Madrid's goalkeeper and has kept 12 clean sheets

Influences

FC Barcelona enjoys a clear home advantage at Camp Nou, averaging 2.6 home goals scored and only 0.45 goals conceded. Real Madrid scores 2.07 goals away and concedes 1.13 goals. At Camp Nou, an average of 3.6 total goals were scored per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 40% of the games, and 40% of the games ended with over 2.5 goals

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