La Liga
Elche - Deportivo Alavés
05/09/2026, 12:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.2
1.5
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Elche
Deportivo Alavés
The Lab
- 1Elche: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- 2Deportivo Alavés: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Deportivo Alavés with Ibrahim Diabaté: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Elche: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Elche with Pedro Bigas: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
26%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
62%
Under 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
60%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 43% for Elche
- Elche's strong home defense, conceding only 0.86 goals per game, faces Alavés's weak away defense (2.14 goals conceded)
- Deportivo Alavés shows a positive trend in goal scoring, currently averaging 2.0 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Deportivo Alavés is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.14 goals per match
- Only 88% of Deportivo Alavés's usual starting lineup strength in terms of active goals share is available
- The only head-to-head match between these teams was won by Deportivo Alavés
Overview
Elche (14th place, 38 points) host Deportivo Alavés (18th place, 36 points) at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
La Liga match on May 9, 2026, 2:00 PM
Both teams are looking to stay clear of or escape the relegation zone
Form
Elche's recent form over the last five games is LWWWL
This translates to three wins and two losses
Their last match was a 1-3 away loss against Celta de Vigo
Deportivo Alavés shows a form of DDLWL in their last five games
This means one win, two draws, and two losses
Their last game ended in a 2-4 home loss against Athletic Club
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Elche scores an average of 1.32 goals and concedes 1.56 goals per game this season
In home games, the average is 1.33 goals scored and only 0.86 goals conceded
Deportivo Alavés scores an average of 1.18 goals and concedes 1.56 goals per match
Away from home, they score 1.21 goals and concede 2.14 goals per game
The home team kept 7 clean sheets, while the visitors recorded 3 clean sheets
At Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
There has only been one head-to-head match between these two teams so far
Deportivo Alavés won this away game 3-1 on October 5, 2025
Key Players
Elche relies on the offense of André Silva, who scored 10 goals and has an average rating of 6.9
His form is stable with 3 goals in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.07
Álvaro Rodríguez contributed 5 goals and 5 assists this season
Germán Valera scored 4 goals and provided 4 assists
For Deportivo Alavés, Toni Martínez is the top scorer with 11 goals and 3 assists
His form is rising with 3 goals in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.39
Abde Rebbach provided 1 goal and 3 assists in the last 5 games
Antonio Blanco has 2 goals and 2 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Matías Dituro, Elche's goalkeeper, recorded 7 clean sheets in 18 appearances
Antonio Sivera, Deportivo Alavés's goalkeeper, achieved 3 clean sheets in 34 games
Influences
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero averages 2.6 goals per game
Elche's home strength is evident with an average of 1.33 goals scored and only 0.86 goals conceded per home game
Deportivo Alavés concedes an average of 2.14 goals per away game