La Liga
Mallorca - Villarreal
05/10/2026, 12:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.2
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
12%1:0
9%0:2
8%What influences the xG?
Mallorca
Villarreal
The Lab
- 1Mallorca: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2Villarreal: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 3Villarreal: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- 4Villarreal with Dani Parejo: 7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Mallorca: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
27%
Draw
32%
Away Win
41%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
59%
Away or Draw
73%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win with 41% probability
- Villarreal shows strong current form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games
- Villarreal dominates head-to-head matches, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Mallorca
Risk Factors
- Villarreal's attacking strength is significantly reduced, with only 60% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available (including Georges Mikautadze, Nicolas Pépé, Alberto Moleiro, Gerard Moreno, Pape Gueye, Alfonso Pedraza)
- Villarreal concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Overview
Mallorca (16th place, 38 points) host Villarreal (3rd place, 68 points) at the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. La Liga match on May 10, 2026, 2:00 PM. Villarreal is fighting for a top spot, while Mallorca is in the mid-table.
Form
Mallorca's form in the last five games is W, W, D, L, W, which corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Their last match ended in a win. Villarreal's form in the last five games is L, W, D, W, W, showing 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. The team has won their last two consecutive matches. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Mallorca has scored an average of 1.24 goals and conceded 1.5 goals per game this season. At home, they score 1.23 goals and concede 0.91 goals per home game. Villarreal is stronger offensively, averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.15 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Villarreal averages 1.92 goals scored but concedes 2.0 goals per away game. The Estadi Mallorca Son Moix has seen an average of 2.4 goals in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the previous 5 head-to-head matches over the last two years, Mallorca has not managed a single win. Villarreal won 4 of these encounters, with 1 match ending in a draw. The goal difference stands at 3:10 in favor of Villarreal. The last meeting on November 22, 2025, saw Villarreal win 2-1 away.
Key Players
For Mallorca, Vedat Muriqi is a key offensive player with 21 season goals and 1 assist. His form is stable with an average rating of 7.18. SamĂș Costa has scored 7 goals and provided 2 assists, showing good performance with a rising form trend and a rating of 6.89. Sergi Darder contributes to the midfield with 1 goal and 5 assists, a rising form, and a rating of 7.01. On Villarreal's side, Santi Comesaña is a key midfielder with 3 goals and 6 assists, stable form, and a rating of 6.89. Tajon Buchanan contributed 7 goals and 1 assist, also with stable form and a rating of 6.75. Sergi Cardona is an important defender with 1 goal, 4 assists, and a rating of 6.80.
Goalkeepers
Mallorca's goalkeeper Leo RomĂĄn has achieved 5 clean sheets in 29 season appearances with an average rating of 6.87. Villarreal recorded 8 clean sheets this season. Goalkeeper Arnau Tenas played in 6 games and has an average rating of 6.56.
Influences
Mallorca exhibits a solid defense at home, conceding an average of 0.91 goals per home game. Their offense is rather moderate with 1.23 goals per home game. The Estadi Mallorca Son Moix is a venue where an average of 2.4 goals per game are scored, and both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches.