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La Liga

Real Oviedo - Getafe

05/10/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Real Oviedo
1.0
Total xG
1.8
Getafe
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

18%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

12%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
ROGET

Real Oviedo

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-0.57
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 8, 12 places gap)
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average)
+0.09
Full strength squad available

Getafe

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.46
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 20, 12 places gap)
+0.05
Luis Vázquez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Adrián Liso on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Kiko Femenía not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 97% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Getafe with Sebastián Boselli: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Real Oviedo with Rahim Alhassane: 7.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Getafe: 67% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

36%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

57%

Under 1.5

43%

Over 2.5

28%

Under 2.5

72%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability for a Real Oviedo home win or draw (72%)
  • Real Oviedo's form trend shows a positive development, while Getafe has a negative form tendency
  • Real Oviedo is currently scoring more frequently (1.2) than their season average (0.9), while Getafe's goal production has stalled (0.6)
Risk Factors
  • Getafe averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
  • Real Oviedo scores only 0.75 home goals per game on average this season
  • Real Oviedo lost the last head-to-head match at home 0-2 against Getafe on September 13, 2025
Overview

Real Oviedo (20th place, 28 points) hosts Getafe (8th place, 44 points) at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere. La Liga match on May 10, 2026, 6:30 PM. Real Oviedo is at the bottom of the table fighting relegation, while Getafe occupies a mid-table position.

Form

Real Oviedo has a recent form of WWDLL in their last five league matches, which includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last result was a loss. Getafe shows a form of WLWLL, with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games. Getafe also suffered two consecutive losses recently. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Real Oviedo scores an average of 0.76 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.59 goals. At home, their average is 0.75 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded per home game. The team kept 9 clean sheets this season. Getafe averages 0.82 goals per game and concedes 1.06 goals. Away from home, Getafe also scores 0.82 goals, but concedes 1.24 goals per away game. Getafe recorded 10 clean sheets overall this season. Real Oviedo saw both teams score in 12 matches (35%), while Getafe had both teams score in 10 matches (29%).

Head-to-Head

Real Oviedo and Getafe have only met once before. Getafe won this away fixture 0-2 on September 13, 2025. This makes Getafe the dominant team in head-to-head encounters.

Key Players

For Real Oviedo, Federico Viñas with 9 goals and 1 assist in 30 season appearances, and Ilyas Chaira with 6 goals and 2 assists in 32 season appearances, are crucial offensively. Both show a rising form trend. Alberto Reina contributed 4 goals and 2 assists in 33 season appearances, also with a rising form. For Getafe, Luis Milla is an important assist provider with 9 assists in 33 season appearances, though his form is declining. Mauro Arambarri scored 6 goals and 2 assists in 33 season appearances, with his form also declining. Martín Satriano has 4 goals and 1 assist in 15 season appearances, and his form is declining as well. Not nominated for Getafe are Luis Vázquez (3G/0A), Adrián Liso (3G/0A), and Kiko Femenía (1G/1A).

Goalkeepers

Real Oviedo's goalkeeper, Aarón Escandell, played 34 season matches and kept 9 clean sheets. David Soria, Getafe's goalkeeper, also appeared in 34 season matches and achieved 10 clean sheets.

Influences

The Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere has an average of 1.6 total goals per game. Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 1 out of 5 matches. Real Oviedo scores an average of 0.75 goals at home and concedes 1.42 goals.

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