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La Liga

Sevilla - Espanyol

05/09/2026, 02:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Sevilla
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Espanyol
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
SEVESP

Sevilla

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.14
Akor Adams on the bench (8 goals, 4 assists)
Oso on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Juanlu Sánchez on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)

Espanyol

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.48
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.29
Declining form (0.3 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.26
Kike García on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Pol Lozano on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Cyril Ngonge not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 91% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sevilla with Alexis Sánchez: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Espanyol with Pere Milla: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Espanyol: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

28%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Sevilla with a 51% probability
  • Espanyol shows a negative form trend with 0 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games
  • Espanyol's goal production has recently stalled, averaging 0.33 goals compared to their season average of 1.18
Risk Factors
  • Sevilla recently averaged only 1.8 shots on target (homeTacticalMetrics)
  • Espanyol recently averaged only 2.6 shots on target (awayTacticalMetrics)
  • Espanyol has a negative form trend in goals conceded, averaging 2.33 goals conceded in recent games compared to their season average of 1.61 (advancedStats)
Overview

Sevilla (17th place, 37 points) host Espanyol (13th place, 39 points) at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

The La Liga match is on May 9, 2026, 4:15 PM

Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the lower half of the table

Form

Sevilla's form across all competitions shows 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses (LWLLW)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

They won their last match 1-0 against Real Sociedad

Espanyol's form across all competitions shows 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses (DLLDL)

They lost their last match 0-2 against Real Madrid

Espanyol has a losing streak of 1 game

Statistics

Sevilla averages 1.21 goals scored per game and concedes 1.62 goals this season

At home, their average is 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded per home game

Espanyol averages 1.09 goals scored per game and concedes 1.50 goals

Away, Espanyol averages 1.12 goals scored and concedes 1.65 goals per away game

Sevilla kept 6 clean sheets, while Espanyol kept 9 clean sheets

At Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, an average of 2.0 goals are scored per game

In 3 of 5 matches at this stadium, both teams scored, and 1 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches between Sevilla and Espanyol

Sevilla won 1 match, Espanyol won 1 match, and 1 match ended in a draw

Sevilla scored a total of 4 goals, while Espanyol scored 3 goals

The last encounter on November 24, 2025, ended 1-2 in favor of Espanyol

The recent head-to-head record is even

Key Players

For Sevilla, the starting lineup includes: Neal Maupay with 2 goals and 1 assist, most recently 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 games with a rising form trend

Rubén Vargas scored 3 goals and 5 assists, most recently 0 goals and 1 assist in 5 games with a stable form trend

Nemanja Gudelj has 2 goals, most recently 1 goal in 5 games with a stable form trend

Not nominated for Sevilla are Akor Adams (8G/4A), Oso (1G/3A), and Juanlu Sánchez (0G/3A)

For Espanyol, the starting lineup includes: Roberto Fernández with 6 goals and 2 assists, most recently 0 goals and 0 assists in 5 games with a stable form trend

Carlos Romero scored 5 goals and 2 assists, most recently 0 goals and 0 assists in 5 games with a stable form trend

Edu Expósito with 1 goal and 6 assists, most recently 0 goals and 0 assists in 5 games with a stable form trend

Not nominated for Espanyol are Kike García (6G/1A), Pol Lozano (2G/1A), and Cyril Ngonge (0G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Sevilla's goalkeeper, Odysseas Vlachodimos, has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Manuel Iori, Espanyol's goalkeeper, achieved 9 clean sheets

Influences

At Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, the average is 2.0 goals per game

In 3 of 5 matches at this stadium, both teams scored, and 1 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

Sevilla averages 1.22 goals scored at home and concedes 1.28 goals

Espanyol averages 1.12 goals scored away and concedes 1.65 goals

The venue surface is natural grass

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