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La Liga

Athletic Club - Valencia

05/10/2026, 02:15 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Athletic Club
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Valencia
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ACVAL

Athletic Club

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.10
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.02
Iñaki Williams on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Valencia

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.09
Largie Ramazani on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Umar Sadiq on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Filip Ugrinic on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Lucas BeltrĂĄn not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Athletic Club with Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Valencia: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Valencia with André Almeida: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Valencia: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Valencia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

32%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis: The model predicts a home win for Athletic Club with 40% probability and 1.24 expected goals
  • Away defensive weakness: Valencia concedes an average of 2.23 goals per away game
  • Home team's form trend: Athletic Club shows a positive trend, scoring 1.6 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.3 goals
Risk Factors
  • High draw probability: The model calculates a 32% probability for a draw
  • Valencia's offensive struggles: Valencia's current goal production is 1.0 goals per game, below their season average of 1.3 goals
  • Athletic Club's increasing defensive vulnerability: Athletic Club recently conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game, compared to 1.59 in the season average
Overview

Athletic Club (9th place, 44 points) host Valencia (14th place, 39 points) at San Mamés Barria

La Liga match on May 10, 2026, 4:15 PM

Both teams are battling in the mid-table, with Athletic Club in a stronger position

Form

Athletic Club's recent form in the last five games is LLWLW, consisting of 2 wins and 3 losses

Athletic Club won their last match 4-2 away against Deportivo Alavés

Valencia's form over the last five matches is LLDWL, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Valencia lost their last match 0-2 at home against Atlético Madrid

Athletic Club is currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals), indicating a positive form trend

Valencia's goal production is struggling (1.0 goals), below their season average of 1.3 goals

Statistics

Athletic Club scores an average of 1.18 goals per game and concedes 1.47 goals per game this season

At home, Athletic Club scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.06 goals per home game

Valencia scores an average of 1.09 goals per game and concedes 1.47 goals per game this season

Away from home, Valencia scores an average of 1.08 goals and concedes 2.23 goals per away game

Athletic Club recorded 6 clean sheets this season, while Valencia recorded 8

San Mamés Barria sees an average of 2.2 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches at this stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic Club won 3 times, Valencia won 2 times, with no draws

Athletic Club scored a total of 4 goals in these encounters, while Valencia also scored 4 goals

The last encounter on February 4, 2026, ended in a 2-1 away victory for Athletic Club against Valencia

Key Players

Gorka Guruzeta is a key player for Athletic Club with 9 goals and 3 assists this season

His form is rising with 3 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.16

Nico Williams scored 6 goals and 3 assists this season, his form is also rising with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.18

Robert Navarro contributed 6 goals and 1 assist, with 1 goal in the last 5 games and a rating of 6.70

Hugo Duro is an important attacker for Valencia with 9 season goals, but his form is declining with 0 goals in the last 5 games (rating 6.44)

Guido RodrĂ­guez shows stable form with 2 goals in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.04

Javi Guerra contributed 1 goal and 5 assists this season, providing 2 assists in the last 5 games with a rating of 6.71

Goalkeepers

Unai SimĂłn is the goalkeeper for Athletic Club and has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Stole Dimitrievski is the goalkeeper for Valencia and has kept 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

Athletic Club shows a solid home performance, scoring an average of 1.17 goals and conceding 1.06 goals

Valencia struggles away from home, with an average of 1.08 goals scored and 2.23 goals conceded

San Mamés Barria averages 2.2 goals per game

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