Match report →
Atlético de Madrid – Celta de Vigo0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlético de Madrid
1.41
Total xG
2.63
Celta de Vigo
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético de Madrid | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Giuliano Simeone not in squad (4 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Robin Le Normand on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ferran Jutglà on the bench (7 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Javi Rueda not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Hugo Álvarez on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Sergio Carreira on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a home win probability of 40%, but a draw (29%) or away win (31%) are also likely outcomes.
- Form Contrast: Atlético Madrid shows mixed form (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), while Celta de Vigo has a weaker record with 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 games.
- Historical Record: Atlético Madrid dominated the last 5 head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, remaining unbeaten.
Risks
- Fatigue: Atlético Madrid had only 4 days of rest since their last match.
- Celta's Recent Defense: In recent games, Celta de Vigo conceded an average of 2.0 goals, significantly higher than their season average of 1.29 goals conceded.
- Atlético's Recent Offense: Atlético Madrid's recent goal production (1.6) is below their season average (1.71).
All probabilities
Result
Atlético de Madrid40%
Draw29%
Celta de Vigo31%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Atlético de Madrid or draw69%
Celta de Vigo or draw60%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Atlético Madrid: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Celta de Vigo: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Atlético Madrid: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Atlético Madrid with Clément Lenglet : 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2 · Celta de Vigo 3-4-2-1
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 2 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 17 D. Hancko
- 3 M. Ruggeri
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 22 A. Lookman
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 9 A. Sørloth
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 32 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 29 Y. Lago Amil
- 20 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 14 Á. Núñez Cobo
- 8 F. López González
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 3 Ó. Mingueza García
- 18 P. Durán Fernández
- 19 W. Swedberg
- 7 B. Iglesias Quintas
Substitutes
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 15 C. Lenglet
- 1 J. Musso
- 11 T. Almada
- 16 N. Molina Lucero
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 34 J. Del Romo
- 37 I. Luque Sierra
- 31 S. Esquivel Gámez
- 21 O. Vaargas
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 61 M. Llorente Cubo
- 24 C. Domínguez Cáceres
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 4 J. Aidoo
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 39 J. El-Abdellaoui
- 21 M. Ristić
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 22 H. Sotelo
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
- 12 M. Fernández Arroyo
- 1 I. Villar Martínez
- 36 A. Antañón Vieites
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →