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La Liga

Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo

05/09/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlético Madrid
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Celta de Vigo
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
AMCDV

Atlético Madrid

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.11
Giuliano Simeone not in squad (4 goals, 6 assists)
Robin Le Normand on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Celta de Vigo

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.16
Ferran Jutglà on the bench (7 goals, 3 assists)
Javi Rueda not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)
Hugo Álvarez on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Sergio Carreira on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlético Madrid: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Celta de Vigo: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Atlético Madrid: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 5
    Atlético Madrid with Clément Lenglet : 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

29%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a home win probability of 40%, but a draw (29%) or away win (31%) are also likely outcomes.
  • Form Contrast: Atlético Madrid shows mixed form (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), while Celta de Vigo has a weaker record with 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 games.
  • Historical Record: Atlético Madrid dominated the last 5 head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, remaining unbeaten.
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue: Atlético Madrid had only 4 days of rest since their last match.
  • Celta's Recent Defense: In recent games, Celta de Vigo conceded an average of 2.0 goals, significantly higher than their season average of 1.29 goals conceded.
  • Atlético's Recent Offense: Atlético Madrid's recent goal production (1.6) is below their season average (1.71).
Overview

Atlético Madrid (4th place, 63 points) host Celta de Vigo (6th place, 47 points) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in a La Liga match on May 9, 2026, 6:30 PM. Both teams are fighting for their positions in the upper half of the table. Atlético aims to secure a Champions League spot, while Celta seeks qualification for European competitions.

Form

Atlético Madrid's form across all competitions is LWDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches. Celta de Vigo shows a form of LLLLW. They achieved 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses in their last 5 games.

Statistics

Atlético Madrid averages 1.71 goals scored per game and concedes 1.09 goals. At home, these values improve to 1.73 goals scored and only 0.73 goals conceded per home game. Celta de Vigo averages 1.41 goals per game and 1.29 goals conceded. Away from home, Celta averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded. The Riyadh Air Metropolitano has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in all 5 games and 3 out of 5 games having over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Madrid dominated with 3 wins compared to 0 for Celta de Vigo, with 2 draws. Atlético Madrid scored a total of 7 goals, while Celta de Vigo managed 2 goals. The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on October 5, 2025.

Key Players

For Atlético Madrid, Alexander Sørloth (12 goals, 0 assists), Antoine Griezmann (7 goals, 2 assists), and Ademola Lookman (2 goals, 0 assists with rising form) are key offensive players. For Celta de Vigo, Borja Iglesias (13 goals, 2 assists), Williot Swedberg (4 goals, 4 assists), and Óscar Mingueza (1 goal, 4 assists) stand out.

Goalkeepers

Atlético Madrid's goalkeeper Jan Oblak has kept 13 clean sheets this season, with 7 of those coming in home games. Ionuț Radu, Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper, recorded 8 clean sheets, 5 of which were in away games.

Influences

Atlético Madrid shows strong home performance with an average of 1.73 goals scored and only 0.73 goals conceded per home game, indicating a significant home advantage. At the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, the last 5 matches averaged 3.0 goals per game. In all 5 of these matches, both teams scored, and 3 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.

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