Match report →
Girona – Real Sociedad1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Girona
1.35
Total xG
2.62
Real Sociedad
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Girona | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 8, 11 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 19, 11 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.02 | |
| Thomas Lemar not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alejandro Francés on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 96% available) | ||
| Orri Óskarsson not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Takefusa Kubo on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Jon Gorrotxategi on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Sergio Gómez on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Real Sociedad's goal threat is reduced to 87% of usual starting XI strength due to missing key players like O. Óskarsson and T. Kubo
- Real Sociedad shows high defensive vulnerability with an average of 2.15 goals conceded per away game
- The mathematical analysis predicts a close match, with home team Girona having a slightly higher win probability of 37% compared to Real Sociedad's 34%
Risks
- Girona had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Real Sociedad averaged 4.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, which is considered average
- Real Sociedad is without O. Óskarsson (Yellow Card Suspension) and G. Ganchinho Guedes (doubtful), reducing active goal threat to 87%
All probabilities
Result
Girona37%
Draw29%
Real Sociedad34%
Double chance
Girona or draw66%
Real Sociedad or draw63%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Girona: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Girona with Cristhian Stuani: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Real Sociedad with Aritz Elustondo: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Girona: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Girona: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Girona 4-3-3 · Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1
Girona
- 13 P. Gazzaniga
- 4 A. Martinez
- 16 A. Torrijo
- 12 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
- 24 A. Moreno Lopera
- 23 I. Martín Núñez
- 20 A. Witsel
- 18 A. Ounahi
- 21 B. Gil Salvatierra
- 15 V. Tsygankov
- 3 J. Roca Casals
Real Sociedad
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 2 J. Aramburu
- 31 J. Martín Vicente
- 16 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 17 S. Gómez
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
- 12 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 14 T. Kubo
- 24 L. Sučić
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Substitutes
- 7 C. Stuani Curbelo
- 2 H. Rincón Lumbreras
- 25 K. Vladyslav
- 11 T. Lemar
- 17 D. Blind
- 5 D. López Silva
- 1 R. Blanco Veiga
- 8 F. Beltrán Peinado
- 14 C. Echeverri
- 36 R. Artero Ruiz
- 19 J. Karrika
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 21 A. Zakharyan
- 5 I. Zubeldía Elorza
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 6 A. Elustondo Irribaria
- 15 P. Marín Tejada
- 23 B. Méndez Portela
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 42 G. Carrera Zarranz
- 22 W. Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →