La Liga
Girona - Real Sociedad
05/14/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.6
1.3
1:1
14%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:0
7%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
Girona
Real Sociedad
The Lab
- 1Girona: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 2Girona with Cristhian Stuani: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Real Sociedad with Aritz Elustondo: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Girona: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Girona: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
29%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Real Sociedad's goal threat is reduced to 87% of usual starting XI strength due to missing key players like O. Ăskarsson and T. Kubo
- Real Sociedad shows high defensive vulnerability with an average of 2.15 goals conceded per away game
- The mathematical analysis predicts a close match, with home team Girona having a slightly higher win probability of 37% compared to Real Sociedad's 34%
Risk Factors
- Girona had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Real Sociedad averaged 4.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, which is considered average
- Real Sociedad is without O. Ăskarsson (Yellow Card Suspension) and G. Ganchinho Guedes (doubtful), reducing active goal threat to 87%
Overview
Girona (19th place, 39 points) hosts Real Sociedad (8th place, 44 points) at the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. The La Liga match takes place on May 14, 2026, 8:00 PM. Girona is fighting to avoid relegation, while Real Sociedad is positioned in the mid-table.
Form
Girona's current form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) is DLLLD, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five matches. Their last game was a 1:1 draw against Rayo Vallecano. Real Sociedad's form is DLDLD, showing 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last five outings. Their most recent match ended in a 2:2 draw against Real Betis. According to Advanced Stats, both teams exhibit a negative recent form trend.
Statistics
Girona has averaged 1.06 goals scored per game and conceded 1.49 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.06 goals scored and 1.39 goals conceded per home game. Girona kept 6 clean sheets this season, with 5 at home. Real Sociedad averages 1.54 goals scored and concedes 1.57 goals per game. Away from home, they average 1.54 goals scored but concede a high 2.15 goals per away game. Real Sociedad achieved 3 clean sheets this season, with only 1 away. At the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 matches. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct encounters, Girona recorded 1 win, Real Sociedad 2 wins, and there were 2 draws. Girona scored a total of 5 goals, while Real Sociedad scored 6 goals in these matches. The last head-to-head on December 12, 2025, ended in a 2:1 victory for Girona at Real Sociedad.
Key Players
For Girona, Viktor Tsygankov (6 goals, 5 assists this season), Azzedine Ounahi (5 goals, 2 assists this season), and Arnau MartĂnez (1 goal, 2 assists this season) are key players. Real Sociedad's prominent players include Mikel Oyarzabal (15 goals, 3 assists this season), Ander Barrenetxea (3 goals, 5 assists this season), and Carlos Soler (4 goals, 3 assists this season).
Goalkeepers
Girona's goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga recorded 6 clean sheets in 32 season appearances. Ălex Remiro of Real Sociedad registered 3 clean sheets in 35 appearances. Real Sociedad kept only one clean sheet away from home, compared to Girona's five at home.
Influences
Home team Girona averages 1.06 home goals scored and concedes 1.39 goals per home game. At the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, an average of 2.6 goals were scored in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 40% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the games.