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La Liga

Real Madrid - Real Oviedo

05/14/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Real Madrid
2.4
Total xG
3.5
Real Oviedo
1.1
Most Likely Scores

2:1

10%

1:1

9%

2:0

9%

3:1

8%

3:0

7%
What influences the xG?
RMRO

Real Madrid

Attack strength (1.39x league average)
+0.90
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 20, 18 places gap)
+0.17
Kylian Mbappé on the bench (24 goals, 4 assists)
Federico Valverde not in squad (5 goals, 8 assists)
Jude Bellingham on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
Dean Huijsen not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 56% available)

Real Oviedo

Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 2, 18 places gap)
-0.19
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average)
+0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.03
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Oviedo with Rahim Alhassane: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Real Madrid: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Real Madrid with Franco Mastantuono: 7.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Real Madrid: 65% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

20%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 3.5

55%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

35%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 65% for Real Madrid
  • Real Madrid demonstrates a strong home offense with an average of 2.05 goals per game and a solid defense with only 0.74 goals conceded
  • Real Oviedo, on the other hand, shows weakness away from home, scoring only 0.74 goals and conceding 1.61 goals on average
Risk Factors
  • Real Madrid must do without key players such as Kylian MbappĂ©, Federico Valverde, Jude Bellingham, and Dean Huijsen, resulting in only 56% of the usual starting XI goal threat being available
  • Real Madrid's goal production has recently slowed to an average of 1.6 goals per game, compared to their season average of 2.2 goals
Overview

Real Madrid (2nd place, 77 points) host Real Oviedo (20th place, 29 points) at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

La Liga match on May 14, 2026, 9:30 PM

Real Madrid is fighting for its top position, while Real Oviedo is battling against relegation

Form

Real Madrid's form in the last five games is LWDWL

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Real Oviedo's form in the last five matches is WDLLD

This means 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Real Madrid lost their last game 0-2, Real Oviedo last drew 0-0

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Real Madrid averages 2.00 goals scored per game and concedes 0.94 goals per game this season

At home, Real Madrid scores an average of 2.05 goals and concedes only 0.74 goals

Real Oviedo averages 0.74 goals scored per game and concedes 1.54 goals per game this season

Away from home, Real Oviedo averages 0.74 goals scored and concedes 1.61 goals

Real Madrid kept 12 clean sheets, Real Oviedo 10 clean sheets

At Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, the last 5 games saw an average of 3.6 goals per match

In these 5 games, both teams scored every time (100%) and there were more than 2.5 goals 4 times (80%)

Head-to-Head

In the 1 previous head-to-head encounter, Real Madrid secured 1 win

There were no draws and no wins for Real Oviedo

Real Madrid scored a total of 3 goals, Real Oviedo no goals

Real Madrid won the last meeting on August 24, 2025, with a score of 3-0

Real Madrid was dominant in the last direct encounter

Key Players

Vinicius Junior is a key attacker for Real Madrid with 15 goals and 5 assists

His form is rising with a rating increase of 0.23

Brahim DĂ­az provided 5 assists this season for Real Madrid

Gonzalo GarcĂ­a contributed 4 goals and 1 assist

For Real Oviedo, Federico Viñas is crucial with 9 goals and 1 assist

His form is rising with a rating increase of 0.26

Ilyas Chaira scored 6 goals and 2 assists for Real Oviedo, showing a strongly rising form with a +0.63 rating delta

Alberto Reina has scored 4 goals and 2 assists for Real Oviedo and shows rising form with a +0.31 rating delta

Goalkeepers

Real Madrid's goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois kept 12 clean sheets this season

Real Oviedo's goalkeeper AarĂłn Escandell managed to keep 10 clean sheets

Influences

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu has a grass surface

Real Madrid shows strong home performance with an average of 2.05 goals scored and only 0.74 goals conceded at home

Real Oviedo concedes an average of 1.61 goals away from home

The last 5 games at the Bernabéu showed an average of 3.6 goals per match

Both teams scored every time, and there were over 2.5 goals in 4 instances

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