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La Liga

Espanyol - Athletic Club

05/13/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Espanyol
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Athletic Club
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

11%

1:0

11%

1:2

7%
What influences the xG?
ESPAC

Espanyol

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 9, 8 places gap)
-0.09
Kike GarcĂ­a on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Tyrhys Dolan not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
RamĂłn Terrats on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Athletic Club

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.44
Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.11
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 17, 8 places gap)
+0.04
Gorka Guruzeta on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists)
Nico Williams not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Yuri Berchiche not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists)
Mikel Jauregizar on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Athletic Club with Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Espanyol: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Espanyol with Rubén Sånchez: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Espanyol: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

33%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Poor Form: Espanyol shows a negative form trend with an average of only 0.5 goals recently
  • Tight Matchup: Mathematical analysis predicts a very balanced game with a 33% home win and 34% away win probability
  • Away Weakness: Athletic Club concedes an average of 1.82 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Limited Goal Threat: Only 66% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available for Athletic Club, without Gorka Guruzeta, Nico Williams, Yuri Berchiche, Mikel Jauregizar
  • Fatigue: Athletic Club with only 3 days rest since their last match
Overview

Espanyol (17th place, 39 points) host Athletic Club (9th place, 44 points) at the RCDE Stadium. La Liga match on May 13, 2026, 7:00 PM. Espanyol are fighting for survival, while Athletic Club is in the middle of the table. The mathematical analysis suggests a very tight match, with a home win probability of 33% and an away win probability of 34%

Form

Espanyol is in a difficult phase with form LLDLL in the last five games. This corresponds to 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses. Their last appearance was a 1-2 loss against Sevilla. According to advanced statistics, the current form trend is negative. Athletic Club shows form LWLWL in their last five games, with 2 wins and 3 losses. Their last match was a 0-1 loss against Valencia. According to advanced statistics, the current form trend is positive

Statistics

Espanyol scores an average of 1.09 goals and concedes 1.51 goals per season. At home, they average 1.06 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded. Athletic Club scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 1.46 goals per season. Away from home, the average is 1.12 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded. Espanyol recorded 9 clean sheets, while Athletic Club had 6. In 20 Espanyol games, both teams scored, compared to 18 Athletic Club matches

Head-to-Head

In the previous 3 head-to-head matches, there has been 1 win for Espanyol and 1 win for Athletic Club, as well as 1 draw. The goal difference is 4:6 in favor of Athletic Club. The last encounter on December 22, 2025, ended in a 2-1 away win for Espanyol against Athletic Club

Key Players

For Espanyol, Roberto Fernåndez with 6 goals and 3 assists, Carlos Romero with 5 goals and 2 assists, and Edu Expósito with 1 goal and 6 assists are key players. For Athletic Club, Robert Navarro with 6 goals and 1 assist, Iñaki Williams with 2 goals and 4 assists, and Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta with 1 goal and 2 assists stand out

Goalkeepers

Espanyol's goalkeeper, Manuel Iori, has scored 0 goals this season. Espanyol has recorded 9 clean sheets so far. Athletic Club's goalkeeper, Unai SimĂłn, has also scored 0 goals this season. Athletic Club has 6 clean sheets

Influences

The RCDE Stadium has an average of 1.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 out of 5 matches. Espanyol averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded at home. Athletic Club averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded away

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