Match report →
Osasuna – Atlético de Madrid1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Osasuna
1.51
Total xG
2.40
Atlético de Madrid
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Osasuna | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Víctor Muñoz not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Aimar Oroz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Giuliano Simeone not in squad (4 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: The model projects a home win for Osasuna with 50% probability and 1.51 expected goals
- Atlético's recent form and absences: Goal production has dropped to 1.2 goals, and key players like Giuliano Simeone are missing (76% of the usual starting XI's scoring strength is available)
- Osasuna's home strength vs. Atlético's away weakness: Osasuna concedes only 0.83 goals per home game, while Atlético concedes an average of 1.75 goals away from home
Risks
- Away team fatigue: Atlético Madrid has had only 3 days rest since their last match
- Limited attacking threat for the away team: Giuliano Simeone is missing, with only 76% of the usual starting XI's scoring strength available
- Osasuna's declining offense: The team's goal production stagnates at an average of 1.2 goals per game, compared to the season average of 1.6 goals
All probabilities
Result
Osasuna50%
Draw29%
Atlético de Madrid20%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Osasuna or draw80%
Atlético de Madrid or draw50%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético Madrid with Clément Lenglet : 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Atlético Madrid: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Osasuna: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Osasuna: 67% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 9)
- Atlético Madrid: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Osasuna 4-2-3-1 · Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2
Osasuna
- 13 A. Fernández Abarisketa
- 19 V. Rosier
- 24 A. Catena Marugán
- 22 F. Boyomos
- 20 J. Galán Gil
- 7 J. Moncayola Tollar
- 6 L. Torró Marset
- 14 R. García Santos
- 16 M. Gómez Bordonado
- 18 R. Moro Prescoli
- 17 A. Budimir
Atlético de Madrid
- 1 J. Musso
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 D. Hancko
- 3 M. Ruggeri
- 11 T. Almada
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 21 O. Vaargas
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 22 A. Lookman
Substitutes
- 41 ?. Arguibide Goñi
- 29 A. Osambela Larraya
- 11 E. Barja Afonso
- 9 R. García de Haro
- 2 I. Benito Sánchez
- 5 J. Herrando Oroz
- 3 Á. Cruz Armada
- 23 A. Bretones Cruz
- 10 A. Oroz
- 8 I. Muñoz Cameros
- 31 D. Stamatakis
- 32 R. Fernández Rodríguez
- 9 A. Sørloth
- 13 J. Oblak
- 15 C. Lenglet
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 29 R. Belaid Khellil
- 32 J. Franco
- 40 A. Puric
- 34 J. Del Romo
- 37 I. Luque Sierra
- 31 S. Esquivel Gámez
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 61 M. Llorente Cubo
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