🇪🇸

La Liga

Osasuna - Atlético Madrid

05/12/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Osasuna
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Atlético Madrid
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
OSAAM

Osasuna

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.11
Víctor Muñoz not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Aimar Oroz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Atlético Madrid

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.22
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.03
Giuliano Simeone not in squad (4 goals, 6 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético Madrid with Clément Lenglet : 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlético Madrid: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Osasuna: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Osasuna: 67% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 9)

  • 5
    Atlético Madrid: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

29%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The model projects a home win for Osasuna with 50% probability and 1.51 expected goals
  • Atlético's recent form and absences: Goal production has dropped to 1.2 goals, and key players like Giuliano Simeone are missing (76% of the usual starting XI's scoring strength is available)
  • Osasuna's home strength vs. Atlético's away weakness: Osasuna concedes only 0.83 goals per home game, while Atlético concedes an average of 1.75 goals away from home
Risk Factors
  • Away team fatigue: Atlético Madrid has had only 3 days rest since their last match
  • Limited attacking threat for the away team: Giuliano Simeone is missing, with only 76% of the usual starting XI's scoring strength available
  • Osasuna's declining offense: The team's goal production stagnates at an average of 1.2 goals per game, compared to the season average of 1.6 goals
Overview

Osasuna (11th place, 42 points) host Atlético Madrid (4th place, 63 points) at Estadio El Sadar. The La Liga match takes place on May 12, 2026, 9:30 PM. Atlético aims to solidify their Champions League spot, while Osasuna is in mid-table with less pressure. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 50% probability, a draw with 29%, and an away win with 21%

Form

Osasuna's form across all competitions is DLWLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). They have suffered two consecutive defeats recently. Their last five games include a 2-3 loss against Levante and a 1-2 loss against FC Barcelona. Atlético Madrid shows a form of WDWLL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and also recorded two consecutive losses. Their recent matches include a 0-1 loss against Celta de Vigo and a 0-1 loss against Arsenal

Statistics

Osasuna has scored an average of 1.21 home goals per game this season and conceded 0.83 goals. Across the entire season, they have scored an average of 1.20 goals and conceded 1.29 goals per game. Both teams scored in 19 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 17 matches. Atlético Madrid averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded per away game. Overall, they scored 1.66 goals and conceded 1.09 goals per game. Both teams scored in 18 of Atlético's matches, and 17 matches had over 2.5 goals. At Estadio El Sadar, the last 5 games averaged 2.6 goals per match. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 previous head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 2 times and Atlético Madrid won 3 times. There have been no draws. Osasuna scored 6 goals in these encounters, while Atlético scored 5. The last meeting on October 18, 2025, ended in a 1-0 away win for Atlético Madrid. The recent head-to-head record indicates away dominance

Key Players

For Osasuna, Ante Budimir is a significant attacker with 17 seasonal goals. Rubén García has proven to be a creator with 5 assists. Alejandro Catena, as a defender, has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists. For Atlético Madrid, Antoine Griezmann is a key attacking player with 7 goals and 2 assists. Thiago Almada scored 3 goals and 1 assist, while Ademola Lookman contributed 2 seasonal goals

Goalkeepers

In goal for Osasuna is Aitor Fernández, who has made 1 appearance this season. Juan Musso starts for Atlético Madrid, having played 6 seasonal games. Osasuna has kept 7 clean sheets in the league, while Atlético Madrid has 13 clean sheets

Influences

Estadio El Sadar has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 80% of these games, and 60% had over 2.5 goals. Osasuna shows a solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.83 goals. Atlético Madrid concedes an average of 1.75 goals away from home. Weather data is not available

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.