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La Liga

Real Betis - Elche

05/12/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Real Betis
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Elche
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

1:2

5%
What influences the xG?
RBELC

Real Betis

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.11
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.07
A. Ruibal GarcĂ­a not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)

Elche

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Álvaro Rodríguez on the bench (6 goals, 5 assists)
Pedro Bigas on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Tete Morente on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Elche: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games

  • 2
    Real Betis with Ricardo RodrĂ­guez: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Elche: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Elche: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Elche with LĂ©o PĂ©trot: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

28%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Real Betis' home win probability is 53% according to the analysis
  • Elche's defensive vulnerability away from home is very high, with an average of 2.69 goals conceded per game
  • Real Betis shows an improved offensive performance with 2.2 goals per game recently
Risk Factors
  • Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Elche's high away goals conceded average of 2.69 per game poses a risk
  • The model predicts a draw with a probability of 28%
Overview

Real Betis (5th place, 54 points) hosts Elche (14th place, 39 points) at the Estadio OlĂ­mpico de Sevilla

La Liga match on May 12, 2026, 8:00 PM

Real Betis is fighting for international spots

Elche is trying to stay away from the relegation zone

Form

Real Betis' last five matches (LWDWD) show 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

The last result was a draw

Elche's form (WWWLD) consists of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches

The last result was also a draw

Real Betis shows a positive form trend, currently scoring more often (2.2) than their season average (1.8)

Elche has a stable form trend, consistently scoring approximately 1.5 goals per game

Statistics

Real Betis averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded per season

At home, they average 1.58 goals scored and only 0.89 goals conceded

Elche averages 1.31 goals scored and 1.54 goals conceded per season

Away from home, Elche scores 1.31 goals but concedes an alarming 2.69 goals per game

Real Betis has kept 10 clean sheets in total, 7 of them at home

Elche has kept 7 clean sheets, but none in away games

Both teams scored in 23 of Real Betis' games, and in 25 of Elche's games

Head-to-Head

In the 2 direct encounters so far, there has been 1 win for Real Betis and 1 draw

Elche has not won any of these matches

Real Betis scored a total of 3 goals, Elche 2 goals

The last encounter was won by Real Betis with 2:1 on January 14, 2026

Real Betis has been more dominant in recent matchups

Key Players

For Real Betis, Abde Ezzalzouli (9 goals, 8 assists, AvgRating 7.33) and Antony (8 goals, 6 assists, AvgRating 7.23) are key offensively

Cucho HernĂĄndez (10 goals, 3 assists, AvgRating 7.06) is also an important goal scorer

Abde Ezzalzouli shows a rising form trend with 4 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games

Not nominated: A. Ruibal GarcĂ­a

For Elche, André Silva (10 goals, 0 assists, AvgRating 6.90) is the most dangerous player

GermĂĄn Valera (4 goals, 4 assists, AvgRating 6.98) and Aleix Febas (2 goals, 3 assists, AvgRating 7.05) are also important offensive forces

Not set up: Álvaro Rodríguez (6G/5A), Pedro Bigas (1G/2A), Tete Morente (1G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Real Betis relies on Álvaro Valles, who has recorded 10 clean sheets this season, 7 of them in home games

Elche's goalkeeper MatĂ­as Dituro has achieved 7 clean sheets this season, but none in away games

Álvaro Valles currently shows a rising form trend

Influences

The Estadio OlĂ­mpico de Sevilla averages 3.0 goals per game

In 3 out of 5 matches at this stadium, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored

Real Betis has a solid home defense, conceding only 0.89 goals per game

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