La Liga
Villarreal - Sevilla
05/13/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
2.8
0.8
2:0
12%1:1
11%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Villarreal
Sevilla
The Lab
- 1Villarreal: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2Villarreal with Dani Parejo: 6.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Villarreal: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- 4Sevilla with Alexis Sánchez: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Villarreal: 78% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
66%
Draw
22%
Away Win
12%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
88%
Away or Draw
34%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Villarreal's Home Strength: Pipeline analysis predicts a home win with 66% probability and 2.04 expected home goals
- Offensive Form: Villarreal currently scores more frequently with 2.2 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.7 goals
- Head-to-Head Record: Villarreal won 4 of the last 5 direct encounters against Sevilla
Risk Factors
- Short Recovery Time: Villarreal has only 3 days rest since their last match
- Sevilla's Low Shots on Target: In the last 5 games, Sevilla averaged 3.0 shots on target
Overview
Villarreal (3rd place, 69 points) host Sevilla (13th place, 40 points) at the Estadio de la Cerámica. The La Liga match will take place on May 13, 2026, 7:00 PM. Villarreal are fighting for international spots, while Sevilla are in the middle of the table
Form
Villarreal shows good form with WDWWD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches across all competitions. Their last result was a draw away against Mallorca. Sevilla's form is WLLWW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). The Andalusians won their last game at home against Espanyol. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Villarreal scored an average of 1.86 goals per game this season and conceded 1.14 goals. At home, they are particularly strong with 1.86 goals scored and only 0.68 goals conceded on average. Sevilla scored an average of 1.23 goals and conceded 1.60 goals per match. Away from home, Sevilla's defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.13 goals. Villarreal kept 8 clean sheets, while Sevilla achieved 6. Both teams scored in 22 Villarreal games and 21 Sevilla games. At the Estadio de la Cerámica, the last 5 matches averaged 3.8 goals per game. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and all 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head matches, Villarreal dominates. They won four games, with one draw. The goal difference of 12:7 also favors Villarreal. The last encounter on September 23, 2025, ended with a 2-1 victory for Villarreal
Key Players
For Villarreal, Nicolas Pépé stands out, scoring 3 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games with a rising form. Georges Mikautadze showed 2 goals in 5 games and has a stable form. Alberto Moleiro contributed 1 goal in 5 games. For Sevilla, Akor Adams scored 2 goals in 4 of the last 5 games and has a stable form. Neal Maupay recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 games with rising form. Djibril Sow delivered 2 assists in 5 games and shows stable form
Goalkeepers
Arnau Tenas is Villarreal's goalkeeper and has made 7 appearances this season. Villarreal has recorded 8 clean sheets this season. For Sevilla, Odysseas Vlachodimos is in goal, playing 31 games this season. Sevilla has achieved 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
The Estadio de la Cerámica, with a grass surface, has proven to be very high-scoring in the last 5 matches, with an average of 3.8 goals per game. Additionally, both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and all 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals. Villarreal scores an average of 1.86 goals at home and concedes 0.68 goals. Sevilla concedes an average of 2.13 goals away from home