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Valencia – Rayo Vallecano1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Valencia
1.67
Total xG
2.94
Rayo Vallecano
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Valencia | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Largie Ramazani on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Umar Sadiq on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Filip Ugrinic on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Lucas Beltrán not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jorge de Frutos on the bench (10 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Isi Palazón not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Unai López on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Andrei Rațiu on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Sergio Camello on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Alexandre Zurawski on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Pathé Ciss on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 55% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Pipeline analysis: Valencia has a higher win probability at 45%
- Form advantage Rayo Vallecano: Unbeaten in the last 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws
- Rayo Vallecano's offensive strength: Averaged 7.2 shots on target in the last 5 games, compared to Valencia's 3.4 shots
Risks
- Limited goal threat for Rayo Vallecano: Only 56% of usual starting XI goal threat is available without Jorge de Frutos (10G/1A), Isi Palazón (3G/3A), Unai López (0G/4A), Andrei Rațiu (0G/3A), Sergio Camello (3G/0A), Alexandre Zurawski (3G/0A), Pathé Ciss (2G/0A)
- Fatigue for Rayo Vallecano: Only 3 days since last match
All probabilities
Result
Valencia45%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano28%
Double chance
Valencia or draw72%
Rayo Vallecano or draw55%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Valencia: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Valencia with Lucas Beltrán: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Rayo Vallecano with Óscar Valentín: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 3.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Valencia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Valencia 4-4-2 · Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 20 R. Saravia
- 5 C. Tárrega Requeni
- 24 E. Cömert
- 14 J. Gayá Peña
- 16 D. López Noguerol
- 18 J. García Vayá
- 2 G. Rodríguez
- 11 L. Rioja González
- 9 H. Duro
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
Rayo Vallecano
- 13 A. Batalla Barga
- 20 I. Balliu Campeny
- 24 F. Lejeune
- 32 N. Mendy
- 3 J. Chavarría Pérez
- 23 Ó. Martín Luengo
- 15 G. Gumbau Garriga
- 21 F. Perez Martinez
- 4 P. Díaz Fanjul
- 22 L. Espino García
- 11 R. Ntekja
Substitutes
- 6 U. Sadiq Mesbah
- 22 B. Santamaría
- 12 T. Rendall Correia
- 7 A. Danjuma
- 25 J. Agirrezabala
- 17 L. Ramazani
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 10 D. Ribeiro Almeida
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 19 D. Raba Antolí
- 26 R. Iranzo Lendínez
- 4 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
- 10 S. Camello Pérez
- 33 J. Vertrouwd
- 9 A. Zurawski
- 1 D. Cárdenas Lindez
- 17 U. López Cabrera
- 14 C. Martín Domínguez
- 8 Ó. Trejo
- 6 P. Ciss
- 2 A. Ratiu
- 16 A. Mumin
- 30 J. Gil Bueno
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