La Liga
Valencia - Rayo Vallecano
05/14/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.9
1.3
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
The Lab
- 1Valencia: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 2Valencia with Lucas BeltrĂĄn: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 4Rayo Vallecano with Ăscar ValentĂn: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 3.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Valencia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
27%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- Pipeline analysis: Valencia has a higher win probability at 45%
- Form advantage Rayo Vallecano: Unbeaten in the last 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws
- Rayo Vallecano's offensive strength: Averaged 7.2 shots on target in the last 5 games, compared to Valencia's 3.4 shots
Risk Factors
- Limited goal threat for Rayo Vallecano: Only 56% of usual starting XI goal threat is available without Jorge de Frutos (10G/1A), Isi PalazĂłn (3G/3A), Unai LĂłpez (0G/4A), Andrei RaÈiu (0G/3A), Sergio Camello (3G/0A), Alexandre Zurawski (3G/0A), PathĂ© Ciss (2G/0A)
- Fatigue for Rayo Vallecano: Only 3 days since last match
Overview
Valencia (13th place, 42 points) host Rayo Vallecano (10th place, 43 points) at the Estadio de Mestalla. La Liga match on May 14, 2026, 7:00 PM. Both teams are close in the table, with Rayo Vallecano just one point ahead of Valencia.
Form
Valencia's form across all competitions shows LDWLW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). The last match was a win. Rayo Vallecano shows stronger form with DWWWD, unbeaten in their last five games (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses), with their last match being a draw. Valencia's goal production is stagnating with an average of 0.8 goals recently, compared to a season average of 1.3 goals. Rayo Vallecano consistently scores around 1.5 goals per game, indicating stable form.
Statistics
Valencia has scored an average of 1.09 goals per game this season and conceded 1.43 goals. At home, they score 1.10 goals and concede 1 goal per game. Rayo Vallecano averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 1.93 goals per match and scores 1 goal. Valencia recorded 9 clean sheets, while Rayo Vallecano had 11. The Estadio de Mestalla has seen an average of 3.2 total goals in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals occurring in 3 of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, the record is balanced with 1 win for Valencia, 1 win for Rayo Vallecano, and 3 draws. The goal difference is also even at 3:3 goals. The last encounter on December 1, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw.
Key Players
For Valencia, Hugo Duro (9 goals), Luis Rioja (2 goals, 6 assists, 1 assist in last 5 games) and Javi Guerra (1 goal, 5 assists, 2 assists in last 5 games) are important players. Hugo Duro shows a declining form trend. For Rayo Vallecano, Randy Nteka stands out with 2 goals this season and 2 goals in the last 5 games, showing a stable form trend. Florian Lejeune (1 goal, 1 assist, 1 goal in last 5 games) and Gerard Gumbau (0 goals, 2 assists, 1 assist in last 5 games) are other key players.
Goalkeepers
Valencia's goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski has kept 9 clean sheets this season. Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper Augusto Batalla has recorded 11 clean sheets this season.
Influences
The Estadio de Mestalla showed an average of 3.2 total goals per match in the last 5 games. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches. Valencia scores an average of 1.10 goals at home and concedes 1 goal. Rayo Vallecano scores an average of 1 goal away and concedes 1.93 goals.