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La Liga

Deportivo Alavés - FC Barcelona

05/13/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Deportivo Alavés
1.0
Total xG
2.6
FC Barcelona
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

0:2

10%

1:2

10%

2:1

6%

0:3

5%
What influences the xG?
DAFB

Deportivo Alavés

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.57
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 1, 18 places gap)
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.11
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.10
Pablo Ibáñez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

FC Barcelona

Attack strength (1.7x league average)
+0.38
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1.8 vs 2.5 season average)
-0.22
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 19, 18 places gap)
+0.11
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.06
Ferran Torres on the bench (16 goals, 1 assists)
Fermín López not in squad (6 goals, 9 assists)
Pedri on the bench (2 goals, 8 assists)
João Cancelo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Eric García on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Barcelona: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    FC Barcelona: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 3
    Deportivo Alavés: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    FC Barcelona with Frenkie de Jong: 8.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Deportivo Alavés: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

28%

Away Win

51%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

50%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 51% win probability for FC Barcelona and a 79% probability for a win or a draw
  • Barcelona is unbeaten in 5 games and won all 5 head-to-head matches against Alavés
  • As league leaders, Barcelona scores an average of 2.60 goals per game, while Alavés is in 19th place and concedes an average of 1.54 goals
Risk Factors
  • FC Barcelona had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Barcelona is missing Ferran Torres (16G/1A), Fermín López (6G/9A), Pedri (2G/8A), João Cancelo (1G/2A), and Eric García (1G/2A), reducing their goal threat to 76%
  • FC Barcelona's goal production has recently dropped to 1.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 2.5 goals
Overview

Deportivo Alavés (19th place, 37 points) host FC Barcelona (1st place, 91 points) at the Estadio de Mendizorroza. La Liga match on May 13, 2026, 9:30 PM. Barcelona is the current league leader, Alavés is battling against relegation

Form

Deportivo Alavés shows mixed form with 'DLWLD', meaning 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games. FC Barcelona is in top form with a winning streak of 5 consecutive games, represented by 'WWWWW'. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Deportivo Alavés averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.54 goals conceded per game. At home, they average 1.15 goals scored and 1.15 goals conceded. FC Barcelona scores an average of 2.60 goals and concedes 0.89 goals. Away from home, Barcelona scores an average of 2.64 goals and concedes 1.57 goals. At the Estadio de Mendizorroza, the last 5 games saw an average of 3.80 goals, with both teams scoring in all matches (100%) and over 2.5 goals in 80% of the games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Alavés remained winless, while FC Barcelona won all 5 games. The goal difference of 3:12 clearly favors Barcelona. The last encounter on November 29, 2025, ended in a 1:3 away win for FC Barcelona

Key Players

Key players for Alavés are Toni Martínez (12 season goals), Nahuel Tenaglia (2 season goals), and Antonio Blanco (2 season goals, 2 assists). For Barcelona, Robert Lewandowski (13 season goals), Marcus Rashford (8 season goals, 8 assists), and Dani Olmo (7 season goals, 8 assists) are crucial

Goalkeepers

Antonio Sivera is Alavés' goalkeeper with 3 clean sheets this season. Wojciech Szczesny is in goal for FC Barcelona, with the team keeping a total of 15 clean sheets

Influences

The home advantage for Alavés is shown by their average of 1.15 goals scored and 1.15 goals conceded at home. At the Estadio de Mendizorroza, an average of 3.80 goals were scored in the last 5 games. Both teams scored in all matches (100%) and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the games. The surface is grass

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