La Liga
Rayo Vallecano - Villarreal
05/17/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.5
1.1
1:1
14%0:0
10%1:0
10%2:1
9%0:1
8%What influences the xG?
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal
The Lab
- 1Villarreal: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 3Villarreal: 85% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Villarreal with Thomas Partey: 7.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Villarreal: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
30%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Rayo Vallecano with 40% for a home win, while a draw is calculated at 30% and an away win at 30%
- Form trend: Rayo Vallecano is unbeaten in 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws, while Villarreal enters the match with a loss
- Offensive duel: Villarreal currently scores more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.7), while Rayo Vallecano's goal production is stagnant (1.2), with a season average of 1.5
Risk Factors
- Rayo Vallecano has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Villarreal concedes an average of 1.92 goals per away game
- Rayo Vallecano's squad strength: not in lineup: Alfonso Espino (2G/0A)
- Villarreal's squad strength: not in lineup: Georges Mikautadze (12G/6A), Nicolas Pépé (8G/6A), Gerard Moreno (10G/0A), Alfonso Pedraza (1G/3A)
Overview
Rayo Vallecano (9th place, 44 points) hosts Villarreal (3rd place, 69 points) at the Estadio de Vallecas. The La Liga match is scheduled for May 17, 2026, 7:00 PM. Villarreal holds a Champions League spot, while Rayo is positioned in the middle of the table.
Form
Rayo Vallecano shows strong current form with WWWDD in their last five matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses). Their last result was a draw. The team has recorded two consecutive draws recently. Villarreal's form in the last five games is DWWDL (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Their most recent game ended in a loss.
Statistics
Rayo Vallecano scores an average of 1.03 goals per game and concedes 1.19 goals. At home, they score 1.05 goals and concede only 0.71 goals per home game, with 7 home clean sheets. Villarreal boasts a strong offense with an average of 1.86 goals per game and concedes 1.19 goals. Away from home, Villarreal scores 1.85 goals and concedes an average of 1.92 goals per match, with 3 away clean sheets. The Estadio de Vallecas sees an average of 2.6 goals per game. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head matches, Villarreal dominates with 3 wins compared to Rayo Vallecano's zero wins, alongside 2 draws. The goal difference is 10:2 in favor of Villarreal. The last encounter was a 4:0 victory for Villarreal on November 1, 2025.
Key Players
For Rayo Vallecano, Jorge de Frutos (10 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.88) and Alexandre Zurawski (3 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.64) are important attacking players, with Zurawski showing rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 games. Florian Lejeune (2 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.11) is a defensive constant. For Villarreal, Alberto Moleiro (10 goals, 5 assists, avg 6.93) stands out. Tajon Buchanan (7 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.74) and Santi Comesaña (3 goals, 6 assists, avg 6.87) also contribute significantly to the offensive threat.
Goalkeepers
Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper Augusto Batalla has 33 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.89. He has recorded 11 clean sheets throughout the season, 7 of which were in home games. For Villarreal, Arnau Tenas is in goal, achieving an average rating of 6.65 in 8 season games. Villarreal has accumulated 8 clean sheets in total, with 3 of them coming in away matches.
Influences
Rayo Vallecano exhibits a clear home advantage, scoring an average of 1.05 goals at home and conceding only 0.71 goals. The Estadio de Vallecas typically sees 2.6 goals per game. 40% of matches ended with both teams scoring, and 40% with over 2.5 goals. The grass pitch surface is a neutral factor.