La Liga
Real Oviedo - Deportivo Alavés
05/17/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.4
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
11%0:1
10%1:2
9%1:0
8%What influences the xG?
Real Oviedo
Deportivo Alavés
The Lab
- 1Deportivo Alavés: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Real Oviedo with Nicolás Fonseca: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Deportivo Alavés with Carles Aleñá: 5.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Deportivo Alavés: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- 5Deportivo Alavés: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
31%
Away Win
41%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
59%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Deportivo Alavés is mathematically favored to win the match with a 41% probability
- Alavés' offense is rated stronger with 1.33 expected goals compared to Oviedo's 1.08 goals
- Real Oviedo's form curve is declining with a negative trend and stalled goal production
Risk Factors
- Real Oviedo had only 3 days rest since their last match
- Deportivo Alavés concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game
- Real Oviedo scores only an average of 0.75 home goals per game
Overview
Real Oviedo (20th place, 29 points) host Deportivo Alavés (15th place, 40 points) at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere. The La Liga match takes place on May 17, 2026, 7:00 PM. Real Oviedo are battling against relegation, while Deportivo Alavés are in the mid-table.
Form
Real Oviedo's current form (DLLDL) shows 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five matches. Their last result was a 0-2 defeat against Real Madrid. Deportivo Alavés (LWLDW) recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Alavés won their last game 1-0 against FC Barcelona. Real Oviedo's goal production has recently stalled at an average of 0.5 goals, while Deportivo Alavés consistently scores around 1.4 goals per game.
Statistics
Real Oviedo averages 0.72 goals scored per game and concedes 1.56 goals. Deportivo Alavés scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.5 goals. Real Oviedo has achieved 10 clean sheets this season, Deportivo Alavés 4. In Oviedo's home matches, both teams scored in 40% of the cases and there were more than 2.5 goals in 20% of the cases. Real Oviedo scores only 0.75 goals per home game and concedes 1.42 goals. Deportivo Alavés scores 1.2 goals away and concedes an average of 2.07 goals.
Head-to-Head
There has only been 1 head-to-head match between these teams so far. This ended in a 1-1 draw on January 4, 2026. Both teams scored 1 goal in this single encounter. The head-to-head record is thus even.
Key Players
For Real Oviedo, Federico Viñas (9 season goals, 1 assist) and Alberto Reina (4 season goals, 2 assists) are important attacking forces. Haissem Hassan has provided 3 season assists. Not in the lineup are Ilyas Chaira (6 goals, 2 assists) and Thiago Fernández (0 goals, 4 assists), which leaves 75% of the usual starting XI goal threat for the home team. For Deportivo Alavés, Toni Martínez stands out with 12 season goals and 3 assists, and his form is also rising. Antonio Blanco contributed with 2 season goals and 3 assists. Nahuel Tenaglia, with 2 season goals, also shows rising form.
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeper for Real Oviedo is Horațiu Moldovan. For Deportivo Alavés, Antonio Sivera is in goal, having made 36 appearances this season. Real Oviedo has completed 10 clean sheets this season. Deportivo Alavés has kept a clean sheet in 4 matches.
Influences
The Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere is known for low goal counts, with an average of 1.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches there. Real Oviedo scores only 0.75 goals at home and concedes 1.42 goals, indicating an average home record. Deportivo Alavés scores 1.2 goals away and concedes 2.07 goals on average. The grass surface is considered neutral.