đŸ‡Ș🇾

La Liga

Real Sociedad - Valencia

05/17/2026, 05:00 PM

3 : 4
Expected Goals
Real Sociedad
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Valencia
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
RSVAL

Real Sociedad

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.12
Attack strength (1.2x league average)
-0.10
Mikel Oyarzabal on the bench (15 goals, 3 assists)
Ander Barrenetxea not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists)
Takefusa Kubo on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Sergio GĂłmez on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)
Jon Gorrotxategi not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 57% available)

Valencia

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Largie Ramazani on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Umar Sadiq on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
José Gayà not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Pepelu on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Valencia: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Valencia with Unai NĂșñez: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Real Sociedad with Aritz Elustondo: 3.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Valencia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Real Sociedad is missing crucial attacking players like Mikel Oyarzabal and Ander Barrenetxea; only 58% of their usual starting XI's goal threat is available
  • Valencia's recent form (2 wins, 2 draws) is more stable than Real Sociedad's (3 draws, 2 losses)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 46% probability and 1.48 expected home goals
Risk Factors
  • Real Sociedad had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Valencia had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Valencia concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game
Overview

Real Sociedad (8th place, 45 points) host Valencia (12th place, 43 points) at Anoeta Stadium

La Liga match on May 17, 2026, 7:00 PM

Both teams are vying for an improved position in the middle of the table

Form

Real Sociedad's form is LDLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

The last two games both ended in a draw

Valencia's form is DWLWD

This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 encounters

The last match was a draw, the second-to-last was a win

Statistics

Real Sociedad scores an average of 1.53 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals per game

Valencia scores 1.08 goals per game and concedes 1.42 goals per game

At Anoeta Stadium, an average of 3.4 goals have been scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

Real Sociedad's goal production is currently stalling (1.2 goals) compared to their season average (1.6 goals)

Valencia's goal production has also recently decreased (1.0 goals) compared to their season average (1.3 goals)

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad leads with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Valencia

One match ended in a draw

Real Sociedad scored a total of 6 goals, while Valencia scored 2 goals in these encounters

The last meeting on August 16, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw

Real Sociedad has shown to be the more dominant team in recent head-to-head duels

Key Players

For Real Sociedad, Orri Óskarsson has been involved in 2 goals in the last 5 games and has scored 7 goals overall this season

Carlos Soler contributed 4 goals and 3 assists this season

Jon MartĂ­n scored 1 goal in the last 5 games and has 2 goals this season

For Valencia, Javi Guerra showed rising form with 3 assists in the last 5 games and 6 assists this season

Diego LĂłpez contributed 1 goal in the last 5 games and has scored 4 goals this season

Hugo Duro is the top scorer of the season with 9 goals, but has shown declining form recently

Goalkeepers

Real Sociedad's goalkeeper Álex Remiro played 36 games and kept 3 clean sheets

Valencia's goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski played in 18 games and recorded 9 clean sheets

Influences

Real Sociedad has an offensive home advantage at Anoeta Stadium with an average of 1.55 home goals scored

Valencia concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerability

Anoeta Stadium is known for high-scoring matches with an average of 3.4 goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.