La Liga
Athletic Club - Celta de Vigo
05/17/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.2
0.9
1:1
15%1:0
13%0:0
13%2:0
9%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Athletic Club
Celta de Vigo
The Lab
- 1Athletic Club with Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Celta de Vigo with Hugo Ălvarez: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Athletic Club: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 4Celta de Vigo: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Celta de Vigo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
32%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 45% home win probability for Athletic Club
- Athletic Club shows a slight historical dominance in head-to-head matches
- Athletic Club is currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than their season average (1.2 goals)
Risk Factors
- Celta de Vigo averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Athletic Club suffered two consecutive home defeats recently
- San Mamés Barria historically shows a low goal average of 1.8 goals per game
Overview
Athletic Club (10th place, 44 points) hosts Celta de Vigo (6th place, 50 points) at San Mamés Barria
La Liga match on May 17, 2026, 7:00 PM
Athletic Club aims to improve its league position
Celta de Vigo is striving for a European spot
The mathematical analysis considers Athletic Club as a slight favorite with a 45% home win probability
Form
The form in the last five games shows a similar picture for both teams
Athletic Club has a form of WLWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They recorded 2 wins and 3 losses
Celta de Vigo has a form of LLWWL
They had 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games
Athletic Club lost their last two consecutive matches
Celta de Vigo lost their last game 2-3 against Levante
Statistics
Athletic Club scores an average of 1.11 goals per game this season and concedes 1.47 goals
At home, Athletic Club also scores 1.11 goals and concedes 1.05 goals
Celta de Vigo scores an average of 1.42 goals per game this season and concedes 1.31 goals
Away, Celta de Vigo scores an average of 1.44 goals and concedes 1.19 goals
Athletic Club recorded 6 clean sheets this season, 4 of which were at home
Celta de Vigo achieved 9 clean sheets, 6 of which were away
Athletic Club is currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than their season average (1.2 goals)
Celta de Vigo consistently scores an average of 1.5 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic Club won 3 and Celta de Vigo won 2
There were no draws in these encounters
Athletic Club scored 10 goals, Celta de Vigo scored 9 goals
The last encounter was won by Celta de Vigo away on December 14, 2025, with a score of 0-2
Historically, Athletic Club shows a slight dominance in recent duels
Key Players
For Athletic Club, Gorka Guruzeta is an important offensive player with 9 season goals and 3 assists, his form trend is rising
Defender Yuri Berchiche contributed with 5 assists and shows stable form
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta in midfield has 1 goal and 2 assists with stable form
For Celta de Vigo, Borja Iglesias stands out with 14 season goals and 2 assists
Ferran JutglĂ is also a key scorer with 9 goals and 3 assists
Defender Javi Rueda provided 2 goals and 6 assists
Goalkeepers
Unai SimĂłn of Athletic Club recorded 6 clean sheets this season
IonuÈ Radu of Celta de Vigo achieved 9 clean sheets
Influences
The San Mamés Barria stadium has an average of 1.8 goals per game
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches
The playing surface is grass
Athletic Club's home defense (1.05 goals conceded) is more stable than their overall defense (1.47 goals conceded)