Match report →
Atlético de Madrid – Girona1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Atlético de Madrid
1.99
Total xG
2.88
Girona
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético de Madrid | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.47 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Marcos Llorente not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Claudio Echeverri on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 61% probability and 1.99 expected goals for Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid has dominated recent head-to-head encounters, winning the last match 3-0
- Girona's goal production is stagnant at 1.0, below their season average of 1.1
Risks
- Girona had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Atlético Madrid's goal production is stagnant at 1.0, below their season average of 1.9
- The form of goalkeeper Jan Oblak (Atlético Madrid) shows a declining trend, as does Paulo Gazzaniga's (Girona)
All probabilities
Result
Atlético de Madrid61%
Draw24%
Girona15%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
Atlético de Madrid or draw85%
Girona or draw39%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Girona with Cristhian Stuani: 3.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Girona: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Atlético Madrid with Clément Lenglet : 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Atlético Madrid: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Girona: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2 · Girona 4-2-3-1
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 17 D. Hancko
- 3 M. Ruggeri
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 21 O. Vaargas
- 20 G. Simeone
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 22 A. Lookman
Girona
- 13 P. Gazzaniga
- 4 A. Martinez
- 16 A. Torrijo
- 12 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
- 24 A. Moreno Lopera
- 20 A. Witsel
- 23 I. Martín Núñez
- 21 B. Gil Salvatierra
- 18 A. Ounahi
- 3 J. Roca Casals
- 15 V. Tsygankov
Substitutes
- 9 A. Sørloth
- 15 C. Lenglet
- 1 J. Musso
- 11 T. Almada
- 29 R. Belaid Khellil
- 32 J. Franco
- 40 A. Puric
- 34 J. Del Romo
- 37 I. Luque Sierra
- 31 S. Esquivel Gámez
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 61 M. Llorente Cubo
- 7 C. Stuani Curbelo
- 2 H. Rincón Lumbreras
- 6 D. van de Beek
- 25 K. Vladyslav
- 11 T. Lemar
- 17 D. Blind
- 5 D. López Silva
- 1 R. Blanco Veiga
- 8 F. Beltrán Peinado
- 14 C. Echeverri
- 36 R. Artero Ruiz
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →