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La Liga

Atlético Madrid - Girona

05/17/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Atlético Madrid
2.0
Total xG
2.9
Girona
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
AMGIR

Atlético Madrid

Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+0.47
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.28
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap)
+0.11
Marcos Llorente not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists)

Girona

Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap)
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Claudio Echeverri on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Girona with Cristhian Stuani: 3.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Girona: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Atlético Madrid with Clément Lenglet : 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Atlético Madrid: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 5
    Girona: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

24%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 61% probability and 1.99 expected goals for Atlético Madrid
  • Atlético Madrid has dominated recent head-to-head encounters, winning the last match 3-0
  • Girona's goal production is stagnant at 1.0, below their season average of 1.1
Risk Factors
  • Girona had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Atlético Madrid's goal production is stagnant at 1.0, below their season average of 1.9
  • The form of goalkeeper Jan Oblak (Atlético Madrid) shows a declining trend, as does Paulo Gazzaniga's (Girona)
Overview

Atlético Madrid (4th place, 66 points) host Girona (16th place, 40 points) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano

La Liga match on May 17, 2026, 7:00 PM

Atlético aims for another top finish, while Girona battles for league survival

Form

Atlético Madrid's last five games show a form of DWLLW

This translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Their last match was a win

Girona has a form of LLLDD in their last five matches

They recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, entering this encounter with 2 consecutive draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.67 goals and concedes 1.08 goals per season

They kept 13 clean sheets

Girona averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per game

They achieved 6 clean sheets

At the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, an average of 2.8 goals per game are scored

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

Atlético Madrid scored an average of 1.65 goals and conceded 0.74 goals in home games

Girona scored an average of 1.06 goals and conceded 1.59 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Madrid dominated with 4 wins compared to Girona's 1 win

There were no draws

Atlético Madrid scored a total of 16 goals, while Girona managed 5 goals

The last encounter on December 21, 2025, ended with a 3-0 victory for Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid has been the more dominant team in recent meetings

Key Players

The key players for Atlético Madrid are:

Antoine Griezmann (7 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 6.98 Rating, form stable)

Giuliano Simeone (4 goals, 6 assists, Avg. 6.97 Rating, form declining)

Ademola Lookman (3 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.82 Rating, form stable, 1 goal in last 5 games)

Not nominated: Marcos Llorente (0G/5A)

For Girona, the key players are:

Viktor Tsygankov (6 goals, 5 assists, Avg. 7.14 Rating, form stable, 1 goal and 1 assist in last 5 games)

Azzedine Ounahi (5 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.26 Rating, form stable, 1 goal in last 5 games)

Joel Roca (3 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.59 Rating, form rising, 1 goal in last 5 games)

Not nominated: Claudio Echeverri (1G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Atlético Madrid's goalkeeper Jan Oblak recorded 13 clean sheets in 29 season appearances

His form shows a declining trend

Girona's goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga played in 33 matches and achieved 6 clean sheets

His form also shows a declining trend

Influences

The Riyadh Air Metropolitano averages 2.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

Atlético Madrid shows a strong offense at home with an average of 1.65 goals and a solid defense with only 0.74 goals conceded per home game

Girona concedes an average of 1.59 goals away from home while scoring 1.06 goals

The playing surface is grass

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