Match report →
Deportivo Alavés – Rayo Vallecano1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo Alavés
1.19
Total xG
2.09
Rayo Vallecano
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo Alavés | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.50 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Denis Suárez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ibrahim Diabaté on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jorge de Frutos on the bench (10 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Andrei Rațiu on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Alexandre Zurawski on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Sergio Camello on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Unai López not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Pep Chavarría on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Florian Lejeune on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Pathé Ciss on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 49% of goal output missing (only 60% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Model Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Deportivo Alavés with a probability of 41%.
- Guests' Offensive Strength: Rayo Vallecano averaged 5.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, showing strong offensive capabilities.
- Guests' Defensive Vulnerability: Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game.
Risks
- Limited Guests' Goal Threat: Rayo Vallecano has only 61% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available.
- Few Home Shots on Target: Deportivo Alavés averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games.
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo Alavés41%
Draw33%
Rayo Vallecano26%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Double chance
Deportivo Alavés or draw74%
Rayo Vallecano or draw59%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
13%
0:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Deportivo Alavés: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Deportivo Alavés with Jonny Otto: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Deportivo Alavés: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Deportivo Alavés 3-5-2 · Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
Deportivo Alavés
- 1 A. Sivera Salvá
- 14 N. Tenaglia
- 16 V. Koski
- 24 V. Parada González
- 7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
- 19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
- 8 A. Blanco Conde
- 18 J. Guridi Aldalur
- 21 A. Rebbach
- 15 L. Boyé
- 11 A. Martínez López
Rayo Vallecano
- 1 D. Cárdenas Lindez
- 20 I. Balliu Campeny
- 16 A. Mumin
- 32 N. Mendy
- 22 L. Espino García
- 23 Ó. Martín Luengo
- 15 G. Gumbau Garriga
- 14 C. Martín Domínguez
- 4 P. Díaz Fanjul
- 18 Á. García Rivera
- 11 R. Ntekja
Substitutes
- 13 R. Fernández-Cavada Mateos
- 17 J. Castro Otto
- 4 D. Suárez Fernández
- 23 C. Benavídez Protesoni
- 9 M. Díaz Mejía
- 3 Y. Enríquez Lekhedim
- 10 C. Aleña Castillo
- 6 A. Guevara Lajo
- 20 C. Goncalves Ferreira da Silva
- 31 G. Swiderski
- 34 A. Mañas Buenadicha
- 22 I. Diabate
- 21 F. Perez Martinez
- 3 J. Chavarría Pérez
- 19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
- 10 S. Camello Pérez
- 33 J. Vertrouwd
- 9 A. Zurawski
- 8 Ó. Trejo
- 24 F. Lejeune
- 6 P. Ciss
- 2 A. Ratiu
- 13 A. Batalla Barga
- 30 J. Gil Bueno
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