La Liga
Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano
05/23/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.1
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
13%0:1
9%2:0
9%What influences the xG?
Deportivo Alavés
Rayo Vallecano
The Lab
- 1Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2Deportivo Alavés: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Deportivo Alavés with Jonny Otto: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Deportivo Alavés: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
33%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Model Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Deportivo Alavés with a probability of 41%.
- Guests' Offensive Strength: Rayo Vallecano averaged 5.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, showing strong offensive capabilities.
- Guests' Defensive Vulnerability: Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game.
Risk Factors
- Limited Guests' Goal Threat: Rayo Vallecano has only 61% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available.
- Few Home Shots on Target: Deportivo Alavés averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games.
Overview
Deportivo Alavés (13th place, 43 points) hosts Rayo Vallecano (8th place, 47 points) at the Estadio de Mendizorroza. La Liga match on May 23, 2026, 9:00 PM. Both teams aim to improve their league standing.
Form
Deportivo Alavés shows a form of 'WLDWW' across all competitions, including 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games, with two consecutive wins recently. Rayo Vallecano's form is 'WWDDW' over all competitions, with 3 wins and 2 draws, being unbeaten in their last 5 matches. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Deportivo Alavés scores an average of 1.16 goals and concedes 1.46 goals per game this season. At home, the average is 1.14 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded. Rayo Vallecano averages 1.05 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Rayo Vallecano scores 1.07 goals and concedes 2.0 goals per game. At Estadio de Mendizorroza, the last 5 games averaged 3.2 total goals per match, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Alavés won 2 games and Rayo Vallecano won 3 games. The goal difference is 3:4 in favor of Rayo Vallecano. The last encounter was won by Deportivo Alavés with a 2-0 score on January 14, 2026. The away team has been more dominant in recent encounters.
Key Players
For Deportivo Alavés, Toni Martínez (13 goals, 3 assists) and Lucas Boyé (11 goals, 1 assist) stand out in attack. Abde Rebbach (1 goal, 4 assists) also contributes to creativity. For Rayo Vallecano, Álvaro García (4 goals, 5 assists) is the most dangerous offensive player. Gerard Gumbau (0 goals, 3 assists) and Randy Nteka (2 goals, 0 assists) are other important players.
Goalkeepers
Deportivo Alavés starts with Antonio Sivera in goal, who has contributed to 5 clean sheets this season. Rayo Vallecano features Dani Cárdenas, with the team keeping a total of 12 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Deportivo Alavés shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.14 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per home game. Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game. The venue, Estadio de Mendizorroza, has seen an average of 3.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 80% of those games.